François Fillon succeeded in being seen as the anti-establishment candidate, and this with a Thatcherite policy. How can that be? 

His ascent started in October with a youtube video that went viral on Facebook, writes l’Opinion. In this 90-minute long intervention, he provocatively asked his audience why they came to see a candidate who had no chance in these primaries. The two victorious candidates for this primary election had already been designated by the press, so why bother? This sort of discourse is similar to that of Philippe Séguin in 1995. Then came the first television debate among the candidates, in which Fillon was considered as a convincing alternative to the Juppé-Sarkozy duo. In a way, Fillon’s victory shows the weakness of the press these days.

Is Fillon's final victory this Sunday already a done deal? Getting 44% in the first round sounds like a comfortable start, as does the backing by Nicolas Sarkozy. But there are risks. 

Fillon’s detailed programme escaped closer scrutiny so far, but will now be discussed in broad daylight. Alain Juppé frames Fillon as extremely traditional, defies his brutal economic package, and warns that Fillon is opening up a Pandora's box by going back on same-sex marriage. Attacks in the social media have already started. There are still a few days to go, and one of the lessons from Fillon's first-round victory is that a lot can happen in a few days.

His five-year programme with spending cuts worth about 1% of GDP per year is too ambitious even for the IMF. Will voters really sign up for his policies of no new hirings in hospitals, education, and police, combined with longer working hours and an increase in the retirement age? His pro-Putin stance, already flagged up on twitter, might also hurt him. What about his five years as prime minister under Nicolas Sarkozy? Jacques Sapir calls him the father of unemployment, as unemployment started to rise under his premiership. The heat is on.

Then there is the question of voter participation. With the elimination of Nicolas Sarkozy, the question is whether the second round will mobilise the same number of voters. Many people turned out to vote simply to get rid of Sarkozy. That a candidate makes it from 10% to over 40% in only a few weeks may suggest that the vote is volatile so that the pendulum could easily swing the other way. Juppé is preparing his counter attack on this premise. He counts on Francois Bayrou and the centrists behind him. He will also appeal to left voters as a better choice against his ultra-liberal opponent, and as a more plausible alternative to Marine Le Pen. Also, what will FN voters do? Could they, together with left voters, vote against Fillon? Unlikely, says Journal du Dimanche. 15% of the voters came from the left, another poll suggests that 79% of left voters would chose Juppé. But that is still not enough. And the majority of FN voters (53%) voted for Fillon.

Fillon looks more dynamic and younger than Juppé, and he received broad support last Sunday. He came first in 87 out of 101 departments, in all age categories, and both among the self-employed and salaried employees. Even one quarter of the left voters backed him, though practising catholics preferred Juppé. If Fillon emerges as the Republican candidate from the primaries next Sunday, Francois Bayrou might well decide to run, according to LeLab.

The question for next year is whether Fillon is increasing the chances of Le Pen becoming president of France, as Thomas Klau suggests. The choice between him and Le Pen could not be starker. His radically liberalising economic programme is likely to drive some of the Left into the arms of Le Pen. This may well tilt the elections towards her. Also, if Fillon is considered the anti-establishment candidate, to vote for Le Pen - the most established of the ant-establishment candidates - may no longer be such a big thing.

What we have learned from Fillon's first-round victory is that the game is not over yet. We do not know yet how Fillon’s ascent will affect the left. Will there be a stellar rise of a candidate there? Arnaud Montebourg, perhaps? We cannot see that. What about a soft version of the reformer Fillon, like Emmanuel Macron? Or Manuel Valls? Maybe. But we are confident in predicting that the race towards the Elysée palace promises more surprises.