Will the German Grand Coalition end prematurely?

 

How safe is Germany's Grand Coalition

Angela Merkel is considered to be one of the most formidable European leaders at present. That judgement is in my view largely correct, but what is widely misjudged is that the Grand Coalition is on much shakier ground than is widely known.

There is a remarkable inside story in today's issue (Friday, 16 March) in Frankfurter Allgemeine by Gunter Bannas, its long-standing political correspondent, and one of the most informed German political journalists. He writes that Angela Merkel has held a meeting with close associates about the possible consequences of an early breakdown of the Grand Coalition before the end of the parliamentary term in 2009. The CDU is apparently concerned that the Social Democrats may be getting restless. During a recent vote on the use of Tornado jets in Afghanistan, 89 of the 222 SPD members of the Bundestag had abstained. There is also an uproar among SPD folk among the planned US missile shield. The CDU is also concerned about the SPD's internal disputes about the corporate tax reform, which the Coalition passed this week, but which SPD leftwingers criticised as favouring companies at the expense of the general taxpayer.

Since the SPD is projected to lose a number of forthcoming state elections – in Lower Saxony, Hesse, and Bavaria – it is possible that the SPD might break out of the present coalition to improve its position ahead of the next parliamentary elections. The SPD could form a government – under its leader Kurt Beck - if it were able to construct a coalition with the Greens and the Liberals (or with the Greens and the Communists), though any such constellation would find it impossible to govern effectively, given the CDU's majority in the Bundesrat, the upper chamber of parliament. Merkel apparently also discreetly asked the SPD whether it would support the re-election would Horst Kohler as federal president in 2009. The SPD apparently did not answer the question, which the CDU also took as a sign that the SPD is currently mulling its various strategic options. Merkel apparently decided that the CDU has to be ready for an early election, should the SPD change its position.

So where are we at this stage? The FAZ story says that the CDU, including Merkel, is worried, but there remains uncertainty – and disagreement – about the SPD's strategic options. There are people in all parties who would swear that this coalition will last to the end of the term, while others think in terms of alternatives. Also note that the government has just passed its probably biggest single reform, the corporate tax reform. There is not much of an agenda left for the next two years, nor is there any appetite on either side for large reforms. This vacuum is adding to the sense that this coalition has lost its raison d'etre.

While it is impossible to make a forecast on whether this coalition can last to the end, it is probably fair to say that there is a non-trivial chance of an early election ahead of 2009, and that in the meantime we will be discussing many more stories such as this.

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