Saturday, 16-02-08 22:15

Berlusconi will be the winner of the Italian general elections in April 2008, according to the polls.
The elections 2 years ago were an almost exact 50-50 draw and the Italian residents overseas - that were voting for the 1st time - actually provided the small majority in the Senate for Prodi, that was lost last month following the resignation of a Naples based minister whose wife was arrested on corruption charges.

Following appointments by Prodi in 2006 of former trade unionists in their 80s to the top 3 positions in the Republic of Italy (remember Italy never had a trade union busting Thatcher), a substantial increase in taxation (including on the assets repatriated to Italy thanks to his predecessor) and the continuation of the decade long underperformance of Italian GDP growth, it is not surprising that Italians are seeking the return of Berlusconi, that unlike most other Italian politicians made his own money before running for public office, ensuring his independence from the "poteri forti", byword for trade unions and industrialists in Italy.

Berlusconi's priority should be the return of Italy to the annual GDP growth rates it achieved in the 1950s and 1960s, the time of the so called "miracolo economico", and he could best achieve that by ignoring the pressures from both trade unions and old style protectionist industrialists and open the Italian economy fully to the 21st century.
One area where Prodi did well was to visit the BRICs with high level delegations and promote trade and cross-investments. Berlusconi should build on that effort in addition to repairing bridges in Europe (remember, well behaved next time you are at the European Parliament, please, no jokes) and re-establish strong links with the U.S. - and I agree with David that if McCain wins the 2 youthful and energetic 71 year olds will get along very well - also a vote for Blair as EU President would be a good idea.

A criticism I often hear of Italy is its lack of global multi-nationals and I suggest an example to the contrary which is UniCredit, where its McKinsey trained CEO Mr Profumo did a great job in merging Italian and German banks and I strongly think he should not be subject by national vetos if a merger with a UK or French bank were on the cards in the future - after 15 years in London and in "Anglo-Saxon" transparency I point out that the bank sponsors this site and also that before I set up my hedge fund boutique and before I was head of Europe at the largest hedge fund in London I did do my little bit in establishing the initial hedge fund activities of UniCredit in Dublin - at Pioneer Alternative Investments - but exactly because I saw the bank from the inside I think it should be held as a successful example of a European bank and should not suffer from excessive interferences from national politicians. Brussels show us what you could do for the new generation of Young Europeans !!!
All the best and well done to Wolfgang for your excellent work.

PS about anti-Americanism in the media do not forget Italy, where a serious honest young (well 45 but that is very young in Italy) and well prepared journalist from my home town Turin called Travaglio has a consistent anti-American and anti-capitalistic attitude and apparently a large following and he should evaluate ("esame di coscienza") if he is doing really the best for Italy by constantly spreading gloom and doom like a modern Savonarola (and consistently defending judges that often attack elected politicians or even descendants of former Italian royals and then have to drop the charges - how about electing senior judges like in America ?) - by himself he may have caused consumer confidence in Italy to drop and reduce GDP growth. Go on holiday in a tropical island and enjoy life a bit for a while, Mr Travaglio, it looks like you need it.

Of course Berlusconi will be best advised to get rid immediately from Italian politics any elected officials with links to organised crime (and fight off -politely - old stereotypes in old europe of old italy) and ensure that his media interests are held in a blind trust while he discharges his roles as PM or even President of the Republic as Wolfgang suggests.

Tuesday, 05-02-08 17:17

I think there are two interesting implications of any return to power by Berlusconi:

1) he is the same age as McCain, so if they are both elected they may be on the same wavelength

2) Berlusconi could be one more voice/vote by a national leader for Blair as European President.