Greek Crisis: Ending (at last) the Trojan War

By: Jacques Delpla

A peace initiative with Turkey could reduce Greece´s expenditures by 3pp of GDP.

Towards Default

By: Wolfgang Münchau

The European response to the Greek crisis is at least in part to blame.

The Systemic Risk Board: A return to the EMS

By: Casper de Vries

The board has no clear goal, no instruments or any power; at best it can collect and disseminate information on systemic risk.

The banking crisis - a rational interpretation

By: Patrick Minford

An unfashionable defense of rational expectation models.

Inflationary pressures to remain low

By: KOF Swiss Economic Institute

The KOF MPC indicator measures the risks to future price stability as communicated by the ECB.

Why the Euro will continue to weaken

By: Wolfgang Münchau

When you consolidate the fiscal position, either the private sector deteriorates, or the current account has to improve. This would either imply, or necessitate, a depreciation.

This is a Test Only

Testing

Beyond 4.25%

We predicted last time that the next movement in interest rates would be a rate rise. In today's ECB Watch we look beyond July's rate increase. Where will the ECB stop?

So how about this rate increase?

Believe it or not: The ECB policy stance is not neutral anymore. The central bank is more likely to raise interest rates now than to cut them.

Ten reasons to leave the euro-dollar exchange rate alone

We have been hearing a lot of anguished comment about the euro-dollar exchange rate. Here are ten reasons why we should leave the euro/dollar exchange rate alone.

A Run on America

This crisis will mean three things: the end of the US as the world sole economic superpower; the end of the dollar as the global reserve currency, and its replacement by the euro; and the de facto end of Anglo-Saxon transaction-based financial capitalism.

Forget about Q2

Forecasters are underestimating the rising importance of monetary analysis in the ECB's decision making framework. A rate cut is not very likely.