Should central banks publish their interest rate forecasts?

By: Stefan Gerlach, University of Frankfurt

No. The level of uncertainty is simply too high.

Germany's nuclear paranoia

By: Wolfgang Münchau

In my latest FT Deutschland column, I argue that the German Social Democrats are in a right mess over nuclear. This entry contains an English synopsis, and the original column in German.

Forget about Q2

Forecasters are underestimating the rising importance of monetary analysis in the ECB's decision making framework. A rate cut is not very likely.

Who would have thought that?

The euro area economy turned out to be quite resilient during Q4, while the US was already heading for recession. We stick with our view that a rate cut is definitely not on the agenda for quite some time to come.

Expect no economic decoupling - but policy decoupling

The Fed will keep cutting rates as if there is no tomorrow. In the euro area, yesterday's interest rates are like remain tomorrow's for a long time to come.

What the credit numbers tell us

That there is no credit crisis in the euro area by a long shot - at least not yet.

Don't Count on the ECB to cut interest rates

Neither pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy suggests that interest rates should be cut at this point. The euro area is not immune from global developments, but this is not primarily a euro area crisis.