Could interest rates stay at 4% for the rest of the year?

12.07.2007

The rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate, and signs of trouble in the credit markets may well pre-empt another ECB rate rise.


September or October? Does it matter?

06.07.2007

The markets were flabbergasted by the uncertainty whether euro area interest rates go up in September or October. We think the ECB is not quite as hawkish some analysts still believe.


Nine questions about what to expect from Sarkozy's trip to Brussels next week

04.07.2007

Here are nine questions and answers about what might or might not happen next week when Nicholas Sarkozy, the French president, addresses the Ecofin meeting.


How important is the Reform Treaty for the Euro Area?

26.06.2007

The good news is that the "reform treaty" will give the euro area a much improved framework for policy co-ordination. The bad news is that Nicholas Sarkozy will mess it up.


Some notes on the source of global imbalances

20.06.2007

The two prevalent theories of the sources of excess global liquidity have very different implications on the near-time outlook for financial markets.


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