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Who would have thought that?
14.02.2008The euro area economy turned out to be quite resilient during Q4, while the US was already heading for recession. We stick with our view that a rate cut is definitely not on the agenda for quite some time to come.
Expect no economic decoupling - but policy decoupling
05.02.2008The Fed will keep cutting rates as if there is no tomorrow. In the euro area, yesterday's interest rates are like remain tomorrow's for a long time to come.
What the credit numbers tell us
31.01.2008That there is no credit crisis in the euro area by a long shot - at least not yet.
Don't Count on the ECB to cut interest rates
28.01.2008Neither pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy suggests that interest rates should be cut at this point. The euro area is not immune from global developments, but this is not primarily a euro area crisis.
Prepare for a global economic downturn, but not a meltdown
07.01.2008This year marks the start of an asymmetric global economic downturn that is likely to persist for some time and will probably be quite unpleasant, but which will be well short of catastrophic.








