Out of control: credit

By: Casper de Vries, Erasmus University Rotterdam

The Fed deliberately ignored traditional indicators that provided early warning about the credit crisis to come.

Is US inflation at 8%?

By: Wolfgang Münchau

Some estimates suggest that we are consistently underestimating the rate of US inflation. While I am largely agnostic on this particular issue, I strongly believe that we need a debate about how we measure prices. (Note to readers: The guestbook entries are working again.)

Get used to 4% - Lessons from the Credit Crunch

Euro interest rates may peak at 4%, but don't expect any sharp moves downwards if and when the crisis unfolds. This time, the ECB is not going to follow a largely discredited Fed.

Could interest rates stay at 4% for the rest of the year?

The rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate, and signs of trouble in the credit markets may well pre-empt another ECB rate rise.

September or October? Does it matter?

The markets were flabbergasted by the uncertainty whether euro area interest rates go up in September or October. We think the ECB is not quite as hawkish some analysts still believe.

Nine questions about what to expect from Sarkozy's trip to Brussels next week

Here are nine questions and answers about what might or might not happen next week when Nicholas Sarkozy, the French president, addresses the Ecofin meeting.

How important is the Reform Treaty for the Euro Area?

The good news is that the "reform treaty" will give the euro area a much improved framework for policy co-ordination. The bad news is that Nicholas Sarkozy will mess it up.