The Greek crisis and the future of the Eurozone

By: Paul De Grauwe

Sorting out the Greek crisis remains the absolute priority in the short-term.

Greek Competitiveness Is Not the Issue, Fiscal Discipline Is

By: Erik Jones

The simple fact of the matter is that Greece is having a fiscal crisis. It would have had that crisis whether or not it was in the eurozone.

Europe in Dire Straits – don’t be Brothers in Arms.

By: Henrik Enderlein

The case against bailing out Greece.

How should the Eurozone handle Greece?

The political pros and cons for no support, a European rescue and a call for the IMF.

The Euro Area's political constraints

By: Wolfgang Münchau

Not all policy solutions are possible in a monetary union. There are severely constitutional constraints.

When Does It Hurt?

By: Ansgar Belke

The exchange rate “pain threshold” for German exports is at $1.55 to the euro.

Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe

By: John Lewis

Countercyclical but deteriorating with EU membership.

Why the Euro will continue to weaken

By: Wolfgang Münchau

When you consolidate the fiscal position, either the private sector deteriorates, or the current account has to improve. This would either imply, or necessitate, a depreciation.

Eurozone Meltdown

This is the first in a new series of regular briefing notes on important issues facing the euro area. In this briefing note we are asking whether the euro area could ever break up. We think not. But we are not as certain as we used to be.

An intriguing proposal from Mario Draghi

The governor of the Bank of Italy and head of the Financial Stability Forum says that governments should insure the senior tranches of new debt securities.

Did you know that there is an explicit bailout clause in the Maastricht Treaty?

The Maastricht Treaty’s no bailout rule is irrelevant most of the time. When it becomes relevant, another rule takes over. We call it the Bailout Rule. This rule is evidence that the drafters of the Maastricht Treaty had both good humour, and good sense.

Deflation versus Inflation

Inflation expectations have been rising, as investors begin to worry about the long term implication of ZIRP and quantitative easing. This might also affect the path of European interest rates.

One Percent and beyond

The ECB will almost certainly cut European interest rates to 1% by the summer. We would no longer bet that this is the limit.

Probably one more rate rise this year

We at Eurointelligence are sticking with our forecast of another ECB rate rise at some point this year. The reason is not that the ECB is already planning this - it is not. The reason that most forecasters are still too optimistic about the outlook for inflation.