Fannie and Freddie on the rope
17.07.2008
By: Wolfgang Münchau
When house price are expected to decline by 30%, some strange things are happening
Tales of Leverage
09.07.2008
By: Satyajit Das
There are many ways to increase leverage in a financial transaction that is not properly understood, and not recorded in official statistics. This article gives some examples of the use of total return swaps, digital options, and credit leverage in CDOs.
Bank Earnings – The "V", "U" or "L" Recovery
17.06.2008
By: Satyajit Das
This article offers an in-depth analysis of what is going to happen to bank profits and balance sheets under various scenarios.
Voodoo Banking
09.06.2008
By: Satyajit Das
There are parallels between banks and athletes, whose performance enhancing drugs to boost their performance. This is the first of two articles, which looks what will happen to banks when the drugs are taken away.
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26.05.2008 What is to be done
12.05.2008 Nuclear De-Leveraging
01.05.2008 Equity Analyst Siren Songs
29.04.2008 Global adjustment will be long and painful
06.04.2008 House prices have 30-40% more to fall
10.03.2008 Central bankers cannot stop this contagion
Eurointelligence Briefing Notes
Is there a house price bubble in the Euro Area?
Some of the big questions facing the US at the moment is the extent of the housing recession, and the implication for the wider economy. Another issue is whether the US housing recession will spill over into the euro area. In the past, housing shocks were transmitted across the Atlantic. Will it happen again?The first thing to note is that there is a high correlation between house prices in the US and in Europe, and especially with France and Spain. In a recent analysis, Deutsche Bank producing a scoring model to identify the sensitivity of European house prices to change in US house prices, and concluded that Ireland and Spain are most vulnerable to a slowdown in US housing. They conclude that any bad news from the world economy will not be compensated by housing, as happened in 2001,...