Confidence Indicators
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A crisis for those whose first language is English
22.11.2007
By: Eurointelligence ECB Watch
Like it or not, the credit crunch is an asymmetric crisis. There will be no decoupling, but it will not affect everybody as badly as it will affect the US. That includes the euro area, which benefits from some important stabilisers.
€-coin and the euro-area economic outlook: where do we stand?
29.10.2007
By: Riccardo Cristadoro and Giovanni Veronese
The turmoil that recently hit international financial and monetary markets raised concerns also for its possible spillover on euro-area growth prospects. A deterioration of business expectations was indeed recorded in surveys conducted in the euro-area countries in August and September, and private and public institutions also started to revise down their growth forecasts. €-coin, the Bank of Italy real-time indicator published monthly by the CEPR, is a useful tool to monitor the evolution of the euro-area growth as the financial turmoil unfolds.
Does a downward-sloping yield curve predict a recession?
25.09.2007
By: Charles Goodhart, London School of Economics
Recent research suggests that the additional predictive power of the yield curve – beyond the information in other macroeconomic variables – often appeared during periods of uncertainty about the underlying monetary regime. This is true, for example, of the US during the Volcker disinflation episode.
The coming house price crash in Europe
24.09.2007
By: Wolfgang Münchau
The house price booms we have observed in recent years would not have been possible without a credit boom. The collapse in credit will thus have serious repercussion not only on the property market in those countries, but also on economic growth.
14.12.2006 What exactly do leading indicators forecast?
04.12.2006 What a US recession means for the Euro Area
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