Confidence Indicators
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Not merely a subprime crisis
14.01.2008
By: Wolfgang Munchau
If the credit default swap market hits problems it could produce global financial meltdown if the US recession turns out to be long and hard.
Krugman on monetary transmission channels
14.01.2008
By: Wolfgang Munchau
Monetary transmission channels matter, and particular so for the current US economic downturn.
Prepare for a global economic downturn, but not a meltdown
07.01.2008
By: Wolfgang Münchau
This year marks the start of an asymmetric global economic downturn that is likely to persist for some time and will probably be quite unpleasant, but which will be well short of catastrophic.
The Decoupling of Decoupling
07.01.2008
By: Satyajit Das
The de-coupling theory is deeply flawed. In the “de-coupling” orthodoxy, equity is the new debt; emerging markets are “safe havens”. De-coupling assumes strong corporate earnings and healthy balance sheets. The credit crunch is a “financial” crisis that does not imperil the “real” economy.