Should central banks publish their interest rate forecasts?

By: Stefan Gerlach, University of Frankfurt

No. The level of uncertainty is simply too high.

Fannie and Freddie on the rope

By: Wolfgang Münchau

When house price are expected to decline by 30%, some strange things are happening

Weber hints at another rate increase

ECB makes concerted effort to dispel notion of a rate cut; Weber and Stark say economic downturn will be short and shallow; euro strengthens on comments; Germany’s IG Metall is asking for an 8% pay increase; an Irish delegation, meanwhile, has paid a visit to Denmark to study the political and legal implication of the various Danish EU treaty opt-outs.

The villains are not the bankers, but the economists

By: Wolfgang Münchau

This is not a financial crisis, but a crisis of economic policy. We should thus be sceptical when economists-turned-policy makers produce the same prescriptions now which they have been peddling for the last 15 years.

Probably one more rate rise this year

By: Eurointelligence ECB Watch

We at Eurointelligence are sticking with our forecast of another ECB rate rise at some point this year. The reason is not that the ECB is already planning this - it is not. The reason that most forecasters are still too optimistic about the outlook for inflation.

Why this may well be the last ECB rate rise this cycle

By: Aurelio Maccario, Unicredit

Never before did the ECB experience a similar divergence between inflation and growth. If core inflation remains in check, the peak in headline inflation is nigh, and GDP will settle below potential for several quarters.

Why this may well be the last ECB rate rise this cycle

By: Aurelio Maccario, Unicredit

Never before did the ECB experience a similar divergence between inflation and growth. If core inflation remains in check, the peak in headline inflation is nigh, and GDP will settle below potential for several quarters.