Should central banks publish their interest rate forecasts?

By: Stefan Gerlach, University of Frankfurt

No. The level of uncertainty is simply too high.

House prices have 30-40% more to fall

By: Wolfgang Münchau

Here is an interview with me on CNBC on the housing market situation in western Europe and the US.

The Stability and Growth Pact

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) forms part of the rules and procedures for fiscal policy of the member states of the euro area. The SGP has been subject to criticism long before it was officially agreed at the EU summit in Dublin in 1997 and ever since. The debate about the SGP reflects some of the deep ideological divisions that have accompanied the creation of economic and monetary union. The opponents of the SGP have criticised inter alia that it is pro-cyclical and anti-growth.

Global adjustment will be long and painful

There are no multiple crises - there is only a single crisis, one of global macroeconomic adjustment. It is for that reasons that the finanical crisis is not yet over.

Let them eat cake...

Inflation, not global depression or a financial meltdown, is now the biggest problem facing the world economy. The core inflation measure, ever so popular among central bankers and academics, is a dangerously complecent metric that should be discarded.

Pessimism about the eurozone is misplaced

The euro area is stronger than the forecasts of the IMF believe. The crisis will eventually affect euro area growth, but not so much in 2008. There is also some evidence that the euro area is a touch less dependent on the US than previously.

Central banks must care about asset prices

The IMF is right to say that asset price matter for monetary policy. But the IMF is wrong to claim that this would be consistent with inflation targeting.