What's the future of Spain's Popular Party

By: Silvia Montero-Ramos

Since the last past weeks, the internal strives for power within the Popular Party have taken the headlines of the main Spanish media. The turmoil unleashed after the PP's defeat in the general elections held last March has only increased during the past month, making it very difficult to present a united group in face of the coming congress to be held in June. The new Secretary General of the main opposition party will come out from this congress. What was initially thought as a mere formality is now more unpredictable than ever. Mariano Rajoy 's days as PP's Secretary General may be about ending, while PSOE, the government party and main rival of the conservatives, may be obtaining unexpected benefits.

Mariano Rajoy was the Popular Party's candidate for president at the general elections held last March 9th. It was the second time that Mr. Rajoy run for president and it was also the second time that he lost it against Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Despite his second defeat on a row, Mr. Rajoy declared his intention to run again for secretary general at the Congress of the Popular Party that will take place in Valencia during the month of June. Yet, some changes have occurred within the party during these months following the elections, and the turmoil produced by these changes may put Mr. Rajoy's candidacy at a serious risk.

First of all, the widespread support that Mr. Rajoy enjoyed among an important part of the population has experienced a certain decrease as a consequence of some of Mr. Rajoy's decisions made after his defeat. The powerful trio formed by Mariano Rajoy, Eduardo Zaplana and Angel Acebes disappeared when the two latter were excluded from the new organization of the party. Mr. Zaplana and Mr. Acebes represented the hardliners of the party, being considered as some of the most conservative voices within the party and defenders of the right character of the party. At the same time, Rajoy decided to substitute Mr. Zaplana's position at the Parliament by Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, a young militant with not a large experience. This decision arose the first outspoken critics to Mr. Rajoy coming from the most conservatives members of the party. This is because Mrs. Saez de Santamaria represents a fresher and more open trend than Mr. Zaplana and Mr. Acebes, who had carried out a tough and inflexible opposition during Zapatero's first term in office.

But these initial issues just paved the way for a bigger problem that Rajoy faces: his reelection as Secretary General of the party. The not ideal relations between Esperanza Aguirre, President of the Community of Madrid, and Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, Madrid Mayor, are well known. However, both of them had always claimed their commitment to the party and their unconditional support to their leader, Mr. Rajoy. But this "balance" is now more fragile than never. In this sense, last week Mariano Rajoy announced his "endorsement" of Mr. Gallardon. In other words, he declared that Madrid Mayor was an excellent politician, and therefore he would like to count on him in the future project that Rajoy envisions for his party. Given the known rivalry existing between the Mayor and Mrs. Aguirre, the latter did not feel happy about the fact that Mr. Gallardon could have a relevant place in the party's future.

Furthermore,  Rajoy's new propositions have found a fierce opposition coming from the party's hardliners. In recent declarations, Rajoy has claimed that he is willing to accept change and thus to "reshape" the party according to the new changes that may take place. However, he also tried to make clear that this does not mean to refuse the party's ideals but, on the contrary, he maintains that these ideals will continue to be his and those of the party. Yet, from the most conservative sectors of PP, Rajoy's words have met rejection. This sector, headed by Maria San Gil (the leader of PP in the Basque Country and an acknowledged militant within the party),believes that Mr. Rajoy is bringing the party away from its roots, and thus considers that Mr. Rajoy's reelection at the June Congress may not be the best decision the party could make.

Finally, and even worse, is the fact that this internal division has reached out PP's voters. Last Friday, a few hundreds of people demonstrated in front of PP's headquarters in Madrid, showing their disagreement with Mr. Rajoy.

In sum, almost three most after elections, the main opposition party is split. Traditionally, the Popular Party has always been a united party, with high levels of discipline among its members. Precisely, it has been this discipline and tight organization what has helped the party to gain its over 700.000 members and its high figures of popular support. However, today not only Rajoy faces a complicated situation but the party itself is going through an important crisis that may undermine its legitimacy. In other words, in order to make a strong and good opposition, a party must remain united and find its enemies outside the party and not inside. Given the current situation, the coming congress may prove decisive for the future success of the party opposition, and, much later, its candidacy to reach La Moncloa in 2012. Maybe Mr. Rajoy is not the best asset to lead the PP again, but in any case he undoubtedly is an important member of the party that cannot be left apart. Whoever finally gets the nomination should undertake the "reunification" of the party as the main task.

 

This article first appeared on www.5spaniards.com.

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