Does Sarkozy mean what he says?

By: Wolfgang Münchau

I would like to draw your attention to a very interesting comment from my colleague Eric Le Boucher in Le Monde, the first French commentator to my knowledge who seriously addresses the question of whether Sarkozy means what he says. Le Boucher begins with the philosophical question whether politicians should keep their campaign promises, even the bad ones. He thinks Sarkozy belongs to those who would unambiguously answer that question with yes.

 

When Eric Woerth, the budget minister, recently tried to scale down some of Mr Sarkozy's campaign promises, the new president apparently hit a fuse, and made it absolutely clear that he intends to stick to his word. From everything he has said and done since the election, we have no indication to believe that he intends to backtrack on anything. Yet that seems to be the strange consensus among many policy commentators.

 

Furthermore, and this is relevant to the rest of us, Sarkozy no longer wants to be bound by old promises and undertakings which France has entered with its European partners in the past - the notable exception being the EU constitutional treaty.

 

Here is Le Boucher's quote of Sarozy:

 

"Je vois bien que la pensée unique est de retour. Comme toujours, après avoir subi une défaite, elle revient à la charge. On la voit s'insinuer partout et s'opposer à tout. Je le dis tranquillement mais fermement, son règne est terminé. Je veux que l'on puisse penser librement, débattre librement, décider librement. Je suis pour la liberté de l'esprit et contre tous les conformismes. Je suis pour que l'intelligence soit libre, pour que l'imagination soit libre."

 

 

(Here is my very rough translatation: "I can see that conventional thinking is making a comeback. As ever, after having suffered a defeat, you can see it everywhere. It opposes everything. I say quietly, but firmly, that its reign is finished. I want that we start to think freely again. I am in favour of the liberty of the spirit, and I am against all conformism. I want our knowledge to be free, so that our imagination can be free.")

 

 

Now what is Sarkozy talking about? What does he mean by defeat? Well, he means the economic policy consensus that has reigned in France since 1983, which consisted of the policy of the franc fort, fiscal consolidation, and competitive devaluation. Sarkozy wants to break out of these constraints when he promises a fiscal and economic shock. These are not some words uttered during an election campaign. These are the words of a sitting president. We have every reason to take them seriously.

 

I find it mind-boggling that all my French interlocutors, mostly renowned academics and politicians, tend to play down the significance of Sarkozy's threats. They say, Sarkozy probably does not mean what he says, that he has not yet appointed all his advisers, certainly none for euro area economics, and that it is too early to make any pronouncements. In any case, he wants to reform the labour markets and the educational system, and it is worth to take some risks for that.

 

I find this an incredibly dangerous judgement. Sarkozy is no fool. He is a former finance minister, who knows exactly what he is talking about. He has formed a firm view of economic governance both in France and in the euro area. And he has come to a different conclusion that most of us have. From the vantage point of a populist politician who is keen to break with the past, Sarkozy is in fact totally consistent. Treat the ECB, the Commission, and the Germans as your enemy, and play the role of Robin Hood, who takes the money from the evil ECB and hands it to the poor. This, far more than Italy's economic weakness, or a Spanish housing market meltdown, is the stuff which could endanger the long-run viability of the euro.

 

So I say to my French friends: stop playing cute. You (or some of you) voted for this guy who told you very loud and very clearly what he would do. So do not pretend to be shocked when he keeps his promises.

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