Ireland's Jamaica Coalition

By: Marc Coleman, Sunday Independent

It could have happened in Germany two years ago but didn¦t. It wasn¦t
expected to happen in Ireland, but just has. After a week of intense
negotiations following a closely fought election, politicians from three of
Ireland¦s political parties formed Europe¦s first ever 'Jamaica' coalition.
The expression, which hasn't gained currency in Ireland just yet, the refers
to efforts in the aftermath equally inclusive German election two years ago
to join Germany¦s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with the Free Democratic
Party (FDP) and the Greens.  With their respective party colours of black,
yellow and green making the colours of the Jamaican flag a concept was born.

But Germany was the wrong country and 2005 was the wrong time: Differences
between FDP leader Guido Westerwelle and Green leader Joschka Fischer were
unbridgeable. The more the CDU / SPD grand coalition staggers from
compromise to compromise, the more of a pity this looks: The alliance was
always more viable than it looked. Unlike parties with socialist roots,
Europe's green blend a pragmatic approach to the economy with a refreshing
lack of ideological baggage when it comes to reform. The same is true in
Ireland. As in Germany, there was open hostility between the leader of
Ireland¦s liberal Progressive Democratic (PD) party Michael McDowell and
leading green party figure John Gormley. Having shared power for the last
ten years, the PDs have ¦ to the chagrin of those on the left ¦ played a
decisive role in shaping Ireland¦s low tax economic miracle.

Despite animosity between their senior members, the greens and PDs share
more than their leaders would care to admit: A suspicion of big business, a
passion for cleaning up politics and a voter base with a higher than average
income profile, to name a few. When Michael McDowell lost his seat the more
pragmatic former leader and Health Minister Mary Harney resumed control of
the party. Added to the green party¦s six, the PDs two remaining
parliamentarians gave Ireland¦s biggest party Fianna Fail (a party quite
similar to Germany¦s Christian democrats) the majority it needed in
parliament.

 

On Wednesday June 13th the grassroots - pardon the pun - members of the Green party met and voted overwhelmingly to endorse participation in a centre-right coalition. The reward for breaking a long standing taboo in Green politics was huge. Despite having only six members in Ireland¦s Dail (parliament), the Green party won the two senior cabinet positions closest to its heart in the process, Environment and Energy, as well as two junior ministries (one of which went to its leader Trevor Sargent who, having opposed coalition with FIanna Fail, stood down).    An alternative government had been possible. Instead of the Green party, Fianna Fail could have built a slender majority with sympathetic independent parliamentarians. That they didn¦t is largely thanks to senior Green party member Dan Boyle. As well as being an anchor in the negotiations to form the government, Boyle was instrumental in putting together a highly competent and credible economic manifesto. From being regarded as flaky on the economy, Boyle made the Green¦s credible by basing the manifesto on forecasts on the economy that were more prudent and up-to-date than all of the other parties. Alone amongst the parties they recognized that Ireland¦s stunning rates of growth performance - GDP has grown in real terms by over 4 per cent each year since 1994 - was finally normalizing and election promises had to account for this fact. While promising tax cuts like the other parties, its emphasis on cutting indirect tax was less populist and more focused on the Irish economy¦s key challenge; the astronomical cost of living. Where other parties promised headline grabbing cuts in rates, the Green¦s emphasized the need to introduce indexation into Ireland's outdated system of taxation. As well as the introduction of a carbon tax, it called for Ireland¦s rate of capital gains tax to be increased from 20 to 25 per cent.Like their German counterparts, Ireland's Greens have realos and fundis and to placate the latter their party manifesto had included a call to scrap a motorway building programme. Although quietly dropped, the new programme for government commits to extensive investment in public infrastructure. The programme also commits to the ambitious - too ambitious perhaps - target of sourcing one third of energy supply by 2020. More ambitious still is the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 3 per cent per year. The Green¦s push for a carbon tax was unsuccessful, although by agreeing to establish a Commission on Taxation, Fianna Fail has not entirely ruled this out in future. By way of compensation, Ireland¦s regime of vehicle taxation will change to incentivise purchase of greener cars and more public buses will run on biofuel.For some in the Green party, all of this is insufficient. According to them Fianna Fail's links with big business and the continued use of a regional airport by US troops en route to Iraq will cost the party dear at the next election. For the moment, this is hard to see. Neither issue was a vote winner in the last election while the green¦s potential main competitors appear to have a dismal future. On its left if faces an ageing Labour party increasingly uncertain of its future while on its right its Progressive Democrat allies in government may be entering its final five years of existence. Making up less than ten per cent of the government¦s parliamentary majority, the Green party cannot expect to dominate the new Irish government's agenda to the extent that its more fundamentalist members would wish for. But by levering two key Ministries and achieve solid progress on priority policies, the Greens could steer policy making in the next ten years in the same way the PDs did in the last ten years.Marc Coleman is a columnist with Ireland's Sunday Independent newspaper.

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