A Berlusconi-Sarkozy alliance in Europe?

By: Richard Robert, Telos think tank

 

As French President Nicolas Sarkozy was among the first to congratulate the newly elected Italian leader, rising concern is reported from Brussels on a possible Berlusconi-Sarkozy alliance in Europe. This concern was fuelled by a sentence in Sarkozy’s warm congratulation message stating the two countries have “converging interests on most European issues”. But although both leaders have a common rhetoric on specific topics, such as monetary or immigration policy, their goals and strategies seem different.

 

CBS reported that Sarkozy was the first foreign leader contacted by Berlusconi after his victory last weekend and according to Italian newspapers they had a long telephone conversation. The French President’s official congratulation message evokes a “very privileged relationship,” calling to mind the Berlin-Paris axis, which is usually described in these terms by the French diplomacy, and expresses the hope that Italy and France “can work closely together in a concerted way”. This suggests a switch from the traditional but fragile French-German relationship, to a French-Italian connection. But on what basis?

 

First, it is not clear whether Berlusconi is interested in such an alliance and his diplomatic agenda seems rather different from Sarkozy’s.

 

In a speech on Canale 5 TV Tuesday night, “Il Cavaliere” explained that EU needs a united group of European leaders, naming UK’s Gordon Brown, Spain’s José-Luis Zapatero and Germany’s Angela Merkel. Such a group, he said, would be necessary to give Europe back the international role it has lost since he left office in 2006. But Berlusconi’s political record invites cautiousness when considering what he calls an international role for Europe.

 

During his second mandate (2001-06), he was criticized by his opponents for isolating Italy within the EU, and being mainly interested in a relationship with the US, Israel and the Russian Federation. During the recent campaign Berlusconi said little about international affairs, rather focusing on internal problems. He talked about a possible withdrawal of Italian soldiers from the UN force in Lebanon, making the point for stronger Italian involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan – which can only be described as a switch from a French supported international agenda to a US supported one. He has announced that his first official visit abroad will be to Tel-Aviv. The first foreign leader to visit him, in his Sardinian villa, was Vladimir Putin. This all suggests that Berlusconi’s foreign policy vision is unchanged: Europe’s “international role” is mainly a US driven Atlanticism, with a special care for Russia.

 

It is true that Sarkozy has strengthened France’s links with the US and Israel; true that since his election in May 2007 his harsh electoral critics of Moscow’s violations of human rights quickly switched to a softer, business-compliant position. But strong differences remain between his approach and Berlusconi’s. And on one specific and very sensitive topic, they diverge radically.

 

Launched with Romano Prodi and José-Luiz Zapatero, but against the will of Germany and the countries of Northern Europe, the Euro-Mediterranean Union has been one of Sarkozy’s main initiatives in the field of international policy. Even though several compromises have weakened the initial project, it remains one of the symbols of the French EU Presidency, beginning in July. Sarkozy is still looking for support. Ex-Prime minister Romano Prodi accepted reluctantly. Some of Berlusconi’s closest allies, Sicilia’s ex-President Salvatore Cuffaro for one, declared themselves more warmly in favor of a Euro-Mediterranean Union, but what about Berlusconi himself? His vision of the Mediterranean Sea is quite different. He insists on securing borders much more than on developing economical or political links. His many declarations against Islam and constant insistence on stopping immigration suggest, if not a will, at least a wish to isolate the EU from the countries of Southern side of the sea. His only record  concerning Mediterranean cooperation is a proposition to integrate Israel into the EU, which comes short of Sarkozy’s Mare Nostrum project. Berlusconi will clearly not support it. And even if he should be considering changing positions, it is a turn of events his xenophobe allies of the Northern League (Lega Nord) wouldn’t allow.

 

A topic like immigration shows clearly how two rather similar Right-wing visions can lead to completely different positions at European level. Sarkozy and Berlusconi both won elections partly on a promise to apply a more restrictive immigration policy. But while Sarkozy has always insisted on the necessity of a common European policy, Berlusconi said during the campaign that his priority was to “close the borders and set up more camps to identify foreign citizens without jobs and forced into a life of crime”. Who are these foreign citizens? His Right-wing allies were more specific. They said they would expel tens of thousands of EU citizens, among them Romanian gypsies, without regular income or residence. Berlusconi’s approach is clearly a national one, opposing the Italian territory to the rest of the world and the EU27 in particular, whereas Sarkozy is trying to articulate his policy around both national and European interests.

 

More generally, Berlusconi and the majority of his political partners remain rather euro-skeptical while Sarkozy believes in the EU. There’s a gap between Sarkozy’s “France is back in Europe” in his victory speech of last year, and Berlusconi’s repeated proposal of leaving the Euro zone. Though this proposition may be purely rhetorical (as it was during the five years of his second mandate), it seems difficult to build an alliance inside the EU on such a basis.

 

What the two countries do have in common is an economical problem of competitiveness and certain difficulties with public finances: high level of debt, strong deficits. Both leaders have blamed the strong Euro and the ECB’s monetary policy. “It is clear that something is not right in the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank,” Berlusconi said recently in an interview with Panorama magazine. “We should return to the primacy of politicians. It is not thinkable that it is the bankers who decide the destiny of 400 million Europeans.” Well, this was during the campaign. Candidate Sarkozy’s tone was also rather tough one year ago, but since the election, President Sarkozy has softened his ECB bashing. During the campaign, Berlusconi and some of his allies threatened to leave “Prodi’s Euro”; as they did repeatedly during the 2001-06 mandate, especially in 2003. Sarkozy never as much as hinted to this possibility… and Berlusconi never considered it seriously. His recent change of heart on the Alitalia issue, exactly two days after being elected, just goes to show that talking and acting remain two distinctly separate activities for Il Cavaliere.

 

 

The two leaders do have in common a similar rhetoric on the Euro issue, even though Berlusconi’s is more extravagant. But when it comes to real policy, they both behave more sensibly. Berlusconi is not reckless enough to go back to the lira. As regards Sarkozy, he knows that for the Germans monetary policy is taboo and he definitely needs them to support the French Presidency’s main projects: defence and security, immigration policy, Euro-Mediterranean Union. Berlusconi’s election does not much change the rules of the political game, since on these topics the two men’s agendas are different.

 

A coalition of rhetorical claims does not make an alliance. The strongest, if not the only common interest of the two governments is their major difficulty with public debt. Inflation may help solve this problem faster than expected, which would undermine further the grounds for an alliance.

 

Richard Robert is an editor of Telos think tank (Paris).

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