The German EU Presidency: a turning point for the constitution?

By: Ulrike Guérot, German Marshall Fund

 Will the German EU presidency be able to put the Constitution on track? Will Germany reverse the course in the cul-de-sac of the ratification process? Will Germany gain sufficient momentum for a successful strategy? What solution can we expect by the end of the German presidency?

 

Speculations are at least as intensive as expectations are high – perhaps too high for what Germany actually can achieve. This is precisely why so far Germany displayed a rather ‘low profile’ not to raise hopes about what can be achieved. But Germany has ambitions. At least there should be at the end of the German presidency a roadmap for the constitution with a concrete time table and a genuine agreement on the substance of the treaty.  Chancellor Angela Merkel might be able to choerograph the different positions just in the same way in which she – to everybody’s surprise – was able to strike a deal on the European budget just a couple of weeks after she got elected. There is nothing substantial to be expected in the first part of the German presidency, when the focus of the presidency agenda is on other issues. The Spring Summit of 8^th March 2007 will be dedicated to the economic outlook of the EU, the Lisbon Agenda and Europe’s competitiveness, with a specific look at the future European energy policy. The first draft of the ‘European Energy Action Plan’ has just been published and it is in the heart of all European discussion, as energy policy relates to nearly everything that is currently on the EU agenda: its relationship to Russia, the ENP, the new strategy towards Central Asia etc. These agenda points are complex and important as such; but they also imply less time and efforts for finding a compromise for the Constitution until June.

 

What are the yardsticks in the German presidency for the constitution? In a first step Ms. Merkel is to gather all countries that already ratified the Constitution – and to invite the others, the ‘no-sayers’ and the ‘not-yet-ratified’ countries as ‘observers’. This is to show that the ‘yes-sayers’ are in a clear (2/3) majority: 18 out of 27 plus some “not-yet-ratified” countries are in favour of the constitution, increasing the pressure for France and the Netherlands and some of the potential no-sayers. It is possible that this gathering creates political momentum, or at least demonstates that the argument - so far used by many French people of the ‘no’camp - that a ‘no is a no’ falls short, and that a little more creativity is required from the no-sayers’ side. The intention of the German presidency is clearly to save the legal value of the ‘yes’-votes.

 

The next important event will be the special summit in Berlin on 25^th March 2007 and the resolution on the future of Europe. This resolution is expected to be a short and concise document and shall - as the rumour goes -  give birth to a ‘new narrative of the EU’. Its ambitions is to define the EU goals in and for the 21^st Century that go beyond peace and agricultural policy. Under the ideal scenario, this resolution serves as a new basis for legitimacy for the EU even if it is not intended to spell out solutions for the constitutional crisis. The energy and the commitment of the heads of states and governements to manage this resolution is decisive for the energy that the German EU presidency will and can deploy on the Constitution. In short: Merkel will take the temperature at the special summit in order to determine where and how far she can go on the Constitution at the June Summit.

 

The timing of the French elections will not allow the German Presidency a final deal on the Constitution in 2006.  But France is back to the discussion after shying away for at least a year after the ‘no’ of May 2005.  French politicians are aware that the solution has to come from France itself, if France is not to be marginalised. Both, Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal presented their thoughts on Europe and the Constitution. It is therefore fair to assume that Franco-German dynamics will revive after the presidential elections - independent of who will be elected – and this will prove to be central. An understanding between France and Germany was always essential to get across substantial institutional moves of the EU – especially if the differences are born within the two countries.

 

The Franco-German accord is only a necessary, but not the sufficient condition for a successful re-launch of the Constitution. The Netherlands, Poland and the UK are still ‘difficult candidates’. But a French turn-around could be a starting point for a change in ‘atmosphere’ of the discussion.

 

The objective of the German Presidency is to present at the end of the presidency a clear road-map and time-table for where the discussion should lead. German Foreign Minister Franz-Walter Steinmeier has announced that, after a period of ‘active listening’, Germany could be in a position to specify the ‘substance’ of the constitutional treaty that could be saved and specify the instruments. Once the road-map is achieved under German Presidency, the French – who assume the EU presidency in the 2^nd half of 2008 – might join in to demonstrate a well orchestred and functional Franco-German co-operation between now and then. But both countries will have to assure that member states do not resent a Franco-German consensus as a ‘done deal’ as happened many times in the past. But the truth is that as much as many are suspicious vis-à-vis Franco-German proposals, nothing in the EU advances without or against France and Germany. If the two countries do not find a common ground for a solution, nothing will happen, but many will complain, too…

So, in short, there are no miracles to be expected under the German Presidency. But European history has been marked by many ‘turning points’ (remember François Mitterrands perfomance at the EU-Council in Fontainebleau in 1984 after years of ‘Eurosklerosis’), and the German presidency might well be one! The ‘European crisis’ is somehow over-ripe now and there are too many issues at stake for Europe.  The ‘sleeping beauty’ won’t sleep forever and everybody knows it….

 

 

 

Dr. Ulrike Guérot

Senior Transatlantic Fellow, Europe

The German Marshall Fund of the United States

 

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