There is a lot more optimism about the EU Constitution now

By: Wolfgang Munchau

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, took two large calculated gambles at the beginning of Germany’s presidency of the European Union. The first was an emphasis on climate change, the second an attempt to revive the EU constitution. Not everybody thought this was a smart choice at the time. The first gamble paid off handsomely for Ms Merkel in political terms, no matter what you may think about the details of last month’s climate deal.

I would expect the second gamble to pay off as well. Now, it is true that objectively not much has changed since the French and Dutch voted No on the EU constitution almost two years ago. It is still far from clear how France could ratify the text. The Socialist candidate, Ségolène Royal, has promised a referendum, the outcome of which is unpredictable. Nicolas Sarkozy, the candidate of the centre-right, wants to shove the ratification process through the French parliament. But it is not guaranteed that he will be able do this. The Dutch remain unrelentingly sceptical, as are the British, the Czechs and the Poles.

 

The main difference between 2005 and 2007 is Ms Merkel herself.

Of course, she will not be able to succeed alone. She will need strong allies and some luck. But during the German presidency she has shown some inspiring leadership, and this is possibly one of the most important recent developments in EU politics.

Ms Merkel has some personal qualities that matter immensely in this difficult process. She is a good listener, and talks straight but does not hector. A physicist by training, she has good attention to detail. Having grown up under the communist East German regime, she is better than most other west European politicians at dealing with central and east European leaders. Like Helmut Kohl, the former German chancellor, in whose cabinet she served for eight years, she is good at building close political relationships.

As head of a grand coalition she is well acquainted with the art of coalition politics. In an EU of 27 members, coalition-building is the single most important ingredient for diplomatic success. This is also what distinguishes her approach to the EU from that of Gerhard Schröder, her predecessor as chancellor.

The news is not all good. She is less liberal than many supporters at home and abroad had hoped. She is a firm defender of Germany’s corporatist model, and has been berating the European Commission to defend Germany’s brand of protectionism.

Ms Merkel will probably not go down in history as a great economic reformer. Her grand coalition is largely a preserver of the status quo, and Ms Merkel is careful not to push her coalition partner too far. The issue through which she appears to define herself as a political leader is the future of Europe.

Giving such a high priority to the EU constitution may be a gamble, but the odds are not as bad as they seem. Her first task will be to involve the next French president in a constructive dialogue. The Germans believe, in my view correctly, that no matter who wins the elections in May they will probably want to work out a deal. The second calculation is that the Dutch will be more pragmatic once the French come on board. One should never take the Dutch for granted, but this is still a reasonable calculation.

On a recent visit to Warsaw, Ms Merkel also struck a cordial note with Lech Kaczynski, the Polish president, despite serious difficulties in the bilateral relationship. Mr Kaczynski said at the end of the meeting he would not block Ms Merkel’s efforts to revive debate about the constitution. I would expect Germany to offer the Poles some concessions over voting rights. The constitution reduces Poland’s voting power and raises Germany’s. But voting rights are less of an issue in Germany. The Germans have learnt that political power and influence in the EU rarely derive from an ability to outvote others, but depend on building effective coalitions. Poland will drive a hard bargain, but I doubt they will veto the constitution.

What about the UK? While I agree that UK politicians and diplomats have underestimated Ms Merkel’s determination in respect of the constitution, as argued by Charles Grant on these pages last week, it is equally true that the Germans have been underestimating the political difficulties for Gordon Brown, the man most likely to succeed Tony Blair as Britain’s next prime minister. The Germans have no strategy for this. As far as they are concerned Mr Blair has signed up to the constitution so ratification is a British matter. Now, they are obviously aware that Mr Brown is more sceptical, but Ms Merkel is not going to solve a problem that will not arise in her presidency. It was the French and the Dutch who voted No, and this is her priority right now. The UK will test Ms Merkel’s diplomatic skills in the months to come – and this is possibly going to be the most difficult hurdle in the process.

I do not want to overstate the importance of Germany’s political leadership for the EU. The fate of the future constitution will clearly depend on other political leaders. There is no guarantee that Ms Merkel’s diplomacy will succeed, since any of the 27 leaders can simply walk away. But Ms Merkel has already changed the political dynamics of this process – and provided more leadership than we have seen in Europe in many years.

 

Copyright Financial Times

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