We use cookies to help improve and maintain our site. More information.

May 05, 2016


The case for dropping TTIP

We can see why France opposes TTIP, but Germany should be one of the beneficiaries. Yet in Germany opposition to the transatlantic trade and investment partnership is running particular high. ARD Deutschlandtrend, one of main German polling organisations, has come out with a poll according to which 70% believe that TTIP is negative. Even most supporters of the FDP, the most liberal of German parties, oppose it. Among SPD voters, only 13% are in favour, and this clearly includes the party's leader, Sigmar Gabriel, who is fighting a hopeless battle. According to this poll people see that it would benefit companies, but most believe that it would damage consumers. This is no surprise given how the TTIP leak was reported in the German media, where the focus has been on the possible imports of genetically modified food to Europe. If you want to kill TTIP, this is how to do it. 

The poll also registered 62% opposition to Angela Merkel's dirty deal with Turkey, especially the lifting of visa restrictions. Fewer refugees are arriving in Germany, but for Merkel the crisis is far from over. The ARD poll has both the CDU/CSU and the SPD down to 33% and 20% respectively, just barely enough for the two parties to form another grand coalition if this is what they want to do. The AfD is at 15%. The detailed analysis, which is more revealing than the headline numbers, suggest that AfD supporters like it a lot that the party does not mince words on refugees, but they are critical of the party's failure to distance itself from far-right influences. The party is therefore vulnerable, and might still implode. But it strikes a chord, more so than any other right wing parties in the past.

Another poll already has the SPD at under 20%. But, whatever the precise number, the weakness of the SPD and the rise of the AfD are the dominant issues in German politics today.

Our other stories

We also have stories on the Commission's proposals on Dublin and Schengen; the outraged reaction of German economists to Draghi; on Federico Fubini siding with Draghi on the current account surplus; on Vitor Constancio's refusal to participate in the Banif inquiry becoming a party-political issue; on the poor prospects that the new Spanish elections will break the government impasse; on Sarkozy changing the overseas voting rules in his party's primary; on a depressing but unsurprising report on the final use of Greek bailout funds; on sticks and carrots in the Greek programme negotiations; on the launch of yet another party of the left in Greece; on yet another eurozone sovereign debt restructuring mechanism; and on advice for the Austrian not-so-grand Coalition.

Eurointelligence Professional Edition

For premium access, please log in or register 
for a free 3 day trial access to the Eurointelligence Professional edition. The best independent intelligence on the eurozone in a fast and easy to read format.

May Bank Holiday

There will be no newsbriefing on the May bank holiday, May 2. We will be back on Tuesday, May 3.

We have a publicly available short version of Eurointelligence Professional Briefing, which focuses on the geopolitical aspects of our news coverage. It appears daily at 2pm CET.  It only covers a portion of the full briefing, which appears at 9am CET, and is only which is available only to subscribers.

A message from Wolfgang Münchau

Welcome to the eurointelligence.com homepage.

Since 2006 we have been providing our readers from central banks, European and international institutions and the financial sector with our daily morning newsbriefing, each morning, at 9am CET, Mondays to Fridays. We are independent from governments and institutions, so you get our honest, sharp and frequently humorous take on the news and the debate. The subjects we are currently focusing on are all the issues relevant to the eurozone - the discussion about Greece, the lacklustre economic recovery in the eurozone, but also external influences, like the discussion on Britain's future in the EU and the EU relations with Russia. 
Many people were surprised by the re-emergence of the eurozone crisis. Eurointelligence readers would not have been. We have given our readers an honest assessment of what and what has not been resolved, at a level of a detail that has no match in the published media. Eurointelligence is the place to go to keep ahead of events in the eurozone.
I would like to invite you to register for a free 3-day trial, without commitment, so you can judge for yourself.

Wolfgang Münchau
Director Eurointelligence