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How not to influence a referendum

  • EU leaders stages a concerted attempt to influence the Greek referendum, by framing it as an in-and-out referendum - a tactic we believe is likely to backfire;
  • Peter Spiegel called it a "high-risk political gamble";
  • the second Greek programme is due to expire without the release of the final tranches by midnight tonight;
  • Greece will also today default on the IMF;
  • Alexis Tsipras hinted yesterday that he might resign in case of a Yes vote - he said he would respect a decision to keep Greece trapped in permanent austerity, but he would not implement it;
  • Benoit Coeure said a Grexit can no longer be excluded - an important statement coming from the central bank because it might indicate a willingness to pull the trigger early;
  • the Greek government is considering a legal injunction from the ECJ in case the other EU countries are forcing Greece to leave;
  • the financial market reaction was relative mild yesterday but periphery spreads and CDS prices have gone up a lot;

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