We use cookies to help improve and maintain our site. More information.
close

April 29, 2016

Is Brussels now interfering in the Brexit debate?

Before we go into our main story, just a reminder that there will be no news briefing on Monday, May 2, a UK bank holiday.

Our main story is about the first case we are aware of in which the Project Fear campaign is now being conducted from Brussels itself, which has so far been quiet in the Brexit discussions. Reuters has a story based on two anonymous sources that the EU would insist on completing a swift divorce with Britain after a Brexit vote. There is an aspect of this story which makes us doubtful as it says the two source were "with the bloc's latest thinking". Apart from the fact that we hate it if anyone calls the EU a "bloc" (an ignorant Americanism), we also doubt very much that any two people, however important they may be, know what the EU is thinking - as though this was an issue on which EU leaders are united. We assume, however, that the two sources are familiar with their own thinking. If Brexit prevails, the European Commission would hold a meeting on Sunday, June 26, one of the sources said (which tells us that this must a Commission source). The reason for the quick divorce is a "lack of appetite" for lengthy negotiations. The second source says that the goal is to conclude the deal within two years foreseen by the Treaty (though this can be prolonged if everyone agrees). That would make the UK a non-EU country on July 1, 2018. Any bilateral trade negotiations would start only then.

The unofficial Leave campaign immediately zoomed in on this story with accusations of scaremongering (on this point we agree with them. Threats such as these are extraordinary silly and counterproductive). The spokesman said it was reminiscent of the treats against the UK when they did not join the eurozone. 

If you want to spend the weekend reading up on Brexit, we recommend this compilation of essays. We were interested in Andrew Duff's comment who noted that there were also imponderables attached to a victory of the Remain campaign, an issue we will also be focusing on in the next few weeks. He says even a Remain victory would constitute a soft version of Brexit. We would like to quote his argument in full because we think it is important:

"What is much less obvious is what will happen if Britain votes Yes. The EU institutions will have to try to apply immediately the terms of the Decision of 19 February...The implementation of the Decision will be very complex, controversial and protracted, requiring the complicity of the European Commission, the consent of the European Parliament and the permission of the Court of Justice in order to succeed. It also presupposes no backsliding from any of the other 27 governments in the Council. 

The exercise in giving life to Britain's new 'special status' in the EU will compound the sense of deviation from mainstream, mainland integration. The UK already has opt-outs, for as long as it wants, from joining the euro, from integration within the Schengen border-free area, and from the developing corpus of EU law in justice and home affairs. It has a generous rebate from the EU budget. It claims special treatment under the Charter of Fundamental Rights. It has excluded itself from the banking union. It will not be a participant in the common effort to accept refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Depending on the outcome of the referendum, the Decision of 19 February will entrench in constitutional terms the UK's status as a deviant member state. Technically speaking, indeed, its formal exemption from political union will put the UK in breach of the Copenhagen criteria on which a candidate country's eligibility for EU membership are judged.

In fact, it is difficult to avoid the impression that a Yes vote, especially if close, will amount to little more than a soft form of Brexit."

The Leave campaign had a really bad week last week, with Michael Gove's Albania blunder and President Obama's impressive performance. But we think it would be a mistake to write off the possibility of a Brexit victory. We think that Project Fear will backfire if it is overdone. It is legitimate, of course, to point to the risks of exit (and there are many), but it is wrong to overstretch the argument. We think it is dishonest to use economic forecasts to assess the long-term economic implications. And it is be even more counterproductive if Brussels started to interfere in the campaign with threats like these. We thought the Commission had agreed to stay out of this, so we must assume that whoever those sources may be, they must be secretly favouring a British exit, for no one in their right mind would want to issue any threats at this point.

Show Comments Write a Comment

April 29, 2016

Italy's centre right realigns once again

The main story in the Italian papers this morning is the decision by Silvio Berlusconi to break ranks with the Lega Nord, and support the candidate of the New Centre Right for the mayoral elections in Rome on 5 June. This decision to nominate Alfio Marchini could precipitate a realignment of Italian politics - and could ultimately help Matteo Renzi - as it appears that Italy, too, may be moving towards a Grand Coalition type construction in the long run. Matteo Salvini, the leader of the Lega, told La Repubblica that nothing will be now as it was before, and that he received messaged of outrage from members of Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia. 

Berlusconi has previously opposed the joint candidate of the right, Giorgia Meloni, on the grounds that she a pregnant woman. The opinion polls favour another candidate, Virginia Raggi, the candidate of the Five Star Movement, who is almost certain to make into the second round.

Show Comments Write a Comment

April 29, 2016

First eurogroup, then summit

A eurogroup meeting on Greece is now confirmed for Monday May 9. If this fails, there could be a summit, most likely on May 14 or 15, Ana MPI News agency reports.

The new developments came about after France signalled to Donald Tusk that it is open to the idea of a summit if there is no agreement in the eurogroup while Germany remains opposed to the idea categorically. Alarmed by these divergent views, Dijsselbloem flew to Paris yesterday, also to discuss the content of a possible agreement with Greece. 

Several member states (France, Italy, Portugal) together with the European Commission support Greece in its opposition to legislate contingency measures and that debt relief should be put on the table. To give those discussions more time, Dijsselbloem chose a date for the eurogroup meeting not next week but the week after. 

Before the eurogroup meeting, Dijsselbloem will invite Euclid Tsakalotos, Wolfgang Schauble and Michel Sapin for a meeting as well as a meeting among Mario Draghi, Jean-Claude Juncker and Christine Lagarde.

The institutions issued a joint statement yesterday, saying that Greece made an "important progress on a policy package that could pave the way for discussions on debt sustainability and the conclusion of the first review." They will continue to work on the package from their headquarters, leaving Athens for the Orthodox Easter holiday.

We find it interesting to note that none of this is covered in the German or French media this morning. The German government may think this is a non-starter, while the French press is in election mode, completely ignoring what is going on in the eurozone.

Show Comments Write a Comment

April 29, 2016

French labour reform protests turn violent

In France the fourth day of protests against the El Khomri labour reform bill turned violent, with 24 police officers injured, 3 of them seriously. This morning the press was full of pictures of burning cars and clashes. At least 170,000 workers and students took to streets in several cities to push for the withdrawal of the El Khormi law. They will have another demonstration on May Day and next Tuesday when the bill is debated in parliament. Already the bill has been watered down by the government, but the only effect this had is to provoke an angry response from the employers' organisation without any calming effect on the protests. It is still not clear whether the law will pass. There is another batch of amendments that Christophe Sirugue, the Socialist MP who is to bring the bill into parliament, proposed to make the law more acceptable to the majority, Le Figaro reports.

One mayor issue is whether employers should still be allowed to shed workers if their economic situation is depressed in their overseas operations and not just in France. Another is how easy it is for employers to lay off employees. There is also an extra tax on short term contracts in discussion, to entice employers to prefer long term contracts instead.

Show Comments Write a Comment

This is the public section of the Eurointelligence Professional Briefing, which focuses on the geopolitical aspects of our news coverage. It appears daily at 2pm CET. The full briefing, which appears at 9am CET, is only available to subscribers. Please click here for a free trial, and here for the Eurointelligence home page.

 

Recent News

  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 05, 2018
  • Does the German compromise work? Legally? Politically?
  • What to make of Salvini's relations with Russia?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 25, 2018
  • Trump's car tariff to come early
  • On the lack of a sharp focus in the eurozone debate
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 14, 2018
  • A Labour rebellion, really?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 04, 2018
  • German discourse out of control
  • Wait for European disunity on US tariffs
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 23, 2018
  • Mattarella’s limited options
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 14, 2018
  • Catalonia: plus ça change...
  • Conveney says no to Brexit with border infrastructure
  • Why the noble Lords don't really matter
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 01, 2018
  • What Germany wants to reform, and what not
  • How effective is Macron?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 23, 2018
  • More bad news for the SPD
  • Will Theresa May accept a customs union? The Times says yes. We think so too.
  • A comeback for Marine Le Pen?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 09, 2018
  • Orbán gets his supermajority
  • Riding the wave of resistance
  • The EU’s self-defeating strategy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 27, 2018
  • The IMF's proposals for eurozone reform
  • No concessions from Erdogan
  • Will the UK be shut out of Galileo on Brexit?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 15, 2018
  • Miro Cerar resigns over railway
  • Taking on trade unions over the rail reform
  • How strong is the EU's solidarity with the UK really?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 05, 2018
  • One rock, two vetos, three governments
  • Rutte weighs in
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 19, 2018
  • SPD divided over grand coalition
  • Wauquiez - the French Trump?
  • Why Brexit will be extremely hard to reverse
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 06, 2018
  • Ciudadanos rising
  • Meet the rising star of Dutch populism
  • What to watch out for in British politics
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 24, 2018
  • AfD europhobe to chair of Bundestag's budget committee
  • Watch out for the Labour Party debate on the single market
  • On the productivity puzzle
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 11, 2018
  • The horse taming the dragon - really?
  • Budget contributions for market access?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 05, 2018
  • Catalonia's government by Skype
  • The case for EEA membership
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • December 15, 2017
  • Amendment 9 conundrum
  • The negligible GDP impact of the single market
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • December 01, 2017
  • Unemployment insurance for all - nice idea, but does it work?
  • Hard border paradox
  • Could Jeremy Corbyn be the politician to defeat the banks?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 17, 2017
  • Germany's climate change hypocrisy
  • Canada minus the plus
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 02, 2017
  • The Impact of Brexit
  • German court of auditors questions diesel tax break
  • On trade and violence
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 18, 2017
  • Veneto and Lombardy to vote on autonomy
  • Portugal's president calls on government over fires
  • Radical ideas for radical times: how to pay off public debt
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 03, 2017
  • A short note about UK politics
  • The impact of the German elections on the euro debate
  • The decline and fall of Martin Schulz and the SPD
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 01, 2017
  • Rutte deflates Dutch labour party like a hot air balloon
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • August 21, 2017
  • Soft, getting softer
  • Tsipras' chances of a boost
  • On the fallacy of a middle-ground option for the eurozone
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 28, 2017
  • German government bans Porsche Cayenne
  • More troubles for the AfD
  • Of course there will be a soft transitional period for the UK
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 21, 2017
  • Why has the SPD deflated?
  • Berlusconi’s strategy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 09, 2018
  • German panic about Target2
  • AfD level with SPD
  • How the EU could fail
  • June 01, 2017
  • On how to fix the eurozone
  • What happens if there is no Article 50 agreement?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 28, 2018
  • A no-confidence motion that could backfire
  • The political repercussions of a historic referendum in Ireland
  • Why the lack of an international role for the euro matters
  • May 11, 2017
  • Germany rejects IMF’s policy recommendations before they are issued
  • Why Labour is losing
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 16, 2018
  • Italy's and Germany's pained response to the Syria attacks
  • On the end of the eurozone's economic honeymoon
  • Why Bulgaria should stay out of the euro
  • Where shall we meet after Brexit?
  • April 20, 2017
  • Don’t bet on Trump turning globalist
  • A note on UK election polls
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 27, 2018
  • Irish transport prepares for Brexit scenarios
  • One last Dutch referendum
  • Is the CDU a conservative party?
  • March 27, 2017
  • Governing formation troubles - Northern Ireland edition
  • Did Trump present Merkel with a bill for Nato?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 08, 2018
  • Getting real on Brexit
  • Macron in China
  • March 02, 2017
  • Juncker's scenarios for Europe
  • EU minimum wages are rising
  • No, the Lords didn’t stop Brexit
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 15, 2017
  • A Christmas bonus for poor Greeks
  • Dim prospects of negotiated de-escalation on Catalonia
  • Macron's favourite to succeed Juncker - first round
  • On sovereignty
  • Gli Azzurri
  • February 03, 2017
  • The Schulz effect is getting huge
  • The post-Brexit boom goes on and on and on
  • A correction on Catalonia
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 04, 2018
  • German discourse out of control
  • Wait for European disunity on US tariffs
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 19, 2018
  • SPD divided over grand coalition
  • Wauquiez - the French Trump?
  • Why Brexit will be extremely hard to reverse
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • December 01, 2016
  • Will Italian expats swing the referendum result?
  • Why we keep on misreading the polls
  • Si vis pactum, para bellum
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 25, 2018
  • Macron's pitch to Trump
  • Montoro in Schleswig-Holstein
  • The old world and the new
  • October 23, 2017
  • Macron's plans for the European Parliament
  • First phase of Brexit negotiations in final stretch
  • Why the left hates Europe
  • April 23, 2017
  • The demise of the AfD has accelerated dramatically
  • On how France will need to confront Germany
  • October 24, 2016
  • Ceta - the next deadline
  • Who will lead Germany?
  • Peasant party upsets Lithuanian election
  • Ségolène Royal, seriously?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 13, 2018
  • Macedonia - a deal hailed internationally and challenged at home
  • Macron - elusive to the left
  • What did Theresa May concede?
  • January 31, 2018
  • A compromise of words
  • The Maybot will go on and on and on
  • September 22, 2017
  • The last German polls
  • May 15, 2017
  • SPD and CDU disagree on how to respond to Macron
  • Was Rajoy blackmailed?
  • The rise of the re-leavers
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • August 30, 2016
  • Brexit facts on the ground
  • Burkinis and Republican primaries
  • The SPD and TTIP
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 09, 2018
  • German panic about Target2
  • AfD level with SPD
  • How the EU could fail
  • June 01, 2018
  • Will France and Germany stick together in their response to US trade tariffs?
  • From a eurozone budget to a slush fund
  • April 25, 2018
  • Macron's pitch to Trump
  • Montoro in Schleswig-Holstein
  • The old world and the new
  • March 19, 2018
  • Waiting for Germany
  • Russia’s friends
  • Can the Commons force an extension of the Art 50 period?
  • February 12, 2018
  • What the euro debate is really about
  • How Brexit can still falter
  • January 08, 2018
  • Getting real on Brexit
  • Macron in China
  • December 04, 2017
  • Can Brexit still be stopped?
  • Could Poland open up the Posted Workers Directive again?
  • Has the Bank of England solved the productivity puzzle?
  • October 30, 2017
  • Italy's electoral reform seems to backfire already
  • Bregretometer hits another peak
  • September 29, 2017
  • Is the CDU about to rebel against Merkel?
  • What about defence?
  • What happened to the French mainstream parties?
  • August 29, 2017
  • The deep significance of Labour's Brexit U-turn
  • The day after the SPD loses
  • July 31, 2017
  • Russia sanctions bill becomes US law
  • Spain's Guardia Civil in the eye of the Catalan storm
  • A grand bargain between France and Germany
  • July 03, 2017
  • Can Greece exit its programme without a credit line?
  • The softening Brexit
  • Macron's state of the nation address
  • June 05, 2017
  • What happens to Brexit if Labour wins?
  • What Russia wants
  • May 08, 2017
  • A message of hope
  • Barnier's not so easily agreed Brexit principles
  • The rebirth of the paranoid conspiracy theory
  • April 10, 2017
  • Nein, nein, nein, und nein
  • Sounds like a bad Brexit story, but ain’t
  • On how not to exit the euro
  • March 16, 2017
  • A Polish horror story
  • On the return of industrial policy
  • The limits of the multi-speed Europe
  • February 20, 2017
  • SPD ahead of CDU/CSU
  • Fillon bounces back
  • The Brexit timetable
  • January 27, 2017
  • The Brexit Bill in full
  • Fillon says he would withdraw if charged
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • December 12, 2016
  • Renzi without Renzi
  • Shall we compensate the losers of globalisation?
  • The need for a partnership with China
  • November 22, 2016
  • Towards a transitional deal
  • Estonia's new PM
  • Merkel's depressing plan for a fourth term
  • Why Italy cannot stay in the eurozone
  • November 04, 2016
  • An important decision, not a critical one
  • Europe and Catalonia at the centre of Rajoy's new cabinet
  • Turkey threatens to end refugee deal
  • Everyone against Sarkozy
  • October 17, 2016
  • Ceta is dead for now
  • L’après-Hollande, c'est Hollande
  • SPD against Russia sanctions
  • Nissan to join customs union and other fanciful tales
  • September 30, 2016
  • High drama in the PSOE
  • What happened to Montebourg?
  • Why a hard Brexit is not inevitable
  • September 14, 2016
  • Tusk's confusing message
  • Kenny says European Council won't allow single market access
  • Barroso ups the ante
  • Italy has its Obama-on-Brexit moment
  • August 30, 2016
  • Brexit facts on the ground
  • Burkinis and Republican primaries
  • The SPD and TTIP
  • August 15, 2016
  • Sarkozy to declare his candidacy
  • Do intra-eurozone current account deficits matter?
  • On the failures of modern macroeconomics
  • July 18, 2016
  • What now in Turkey?
  • French politics after Nice
  • How to address the Scottish question?
  • What Brexit means
  • July 07, 2016
  • Article 50 without recourse to parliament
  • Juncker's U-turn on the Canada agreement
  • Left gives up on opposition to El Khomri law
  • June 27, 2016
  • ... 'twere well it were done quickly
  • June 16, 2016
  • Dutch eurosceptics join Leave campaign
  • The 'resign' movement
  • France getting nervous about demonstrations
  • More on the insurrection against Renzi
  • Expect no new cuts in Spain
  • June 08, 2016
  • Getting real on debt relief
  • The re-alignment of the Italian right
  • A critique of Germany's Turkey policy
  • May 31, 2016
  • Grand Coalition below 50%
  • Strikes to continue in France
  • Which crisis will blow up first?
  • Verhofstadt loses patience with the pro-Europeans
  • May 22, 2016
  • Waiting in Austria
  • Greek court puts Turkey deal on hold
  • Sovereignty and rule of law in Poland
  • The age of the disgruntled
  • May 17, 2016
  • Could the Podemos-led alliance surpass the PSOE?
  • Afraid of Merkel
  • Is Montebourg back?
  • The Netherlands and Germany wrangle over a few hundred refugees
  • May 13, 2016
  • Brexit polls inconclusive, but Leave is getting stronger
  • What future for the Socialist rebels?
  • Christian Kern, a manager, to be the next Austrian chancellor
  • On bank capture of the press
  • May 09, 2016
  • High noon over debt relief
  • A French plan for a core Europe
  • Polish opposition takes to the streets
  • May 05, 2016
  • The case for dropping TTIP
  • Another feud amongst French Republicans?
  • Where did the bailout money go?
  • What the Austrian coalition must do (and won't)
  • May 03, 2016
  • TTIP now an election issue, meaning no deal
  • No hopes for a deal before eurogroup meeting
  • Turkey miraculously fulfils conditions for visa-free travel
  • 5,000 amendments for the El Khomri bill
  • The disaster of grand coalitions