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May 12, 2016

Watch out for another shady deal with Turkey

We noted that Martin Schulz said yesterday that he no longer expects the visa waiver for Turkey to come into force by the end of June, since the Turkish parliament refuses to change the anti-terror laws as requested by the EU. But be careful. You should not think for a minute that the EU is giving up on the deal. In the backrooms there is already work in progress on how to produce a face-saving fudge allowing Turkey to continue to violate basic human rights while the EU pretends that all is well. 

Frankfurter Allgemeine has a story taking a deeper look at the diplomacy behind the loud open exchange on both sides. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has rejected the request for a change in the terrorism law, but the EU is now apparently ready to abandon this demand and put it off until EU membership negotiations. Erdogan has sent his chief negotiator, Volkan Bozkir, to talks with senior EU officials in Strasbourg, including Schulz. On Friday, he will talk to the Commission. The European demand for a change in the terrorism law is about Turkey's rather extensive definition of terrorism, which has a huge implications for civil liberties. The deal on visa-free travel, which dates back to 2013, demands that Turkey ensures liberty and security, the right to a fair trial, freedom of opinion, and freedom of public gatherings. The paper reports that the EU now seems to accept that Erdogan will not change the anti-terrorism laws. On the contrary, he wants to strengthen the laws further. But that's apparently no longer a problem for the Europeans. All Ankara is requested to do now is to recognise the EU's legal framework - though we are not entirely sure what that means. It looks to us that the EU would be happy with a general non-binding declaration, allowing Erdogan to continue to abuse his powers at home and the EU to pretend not to see this.

There are still a few principled people out there. Guy Verhoftstadt is one of them. He wants to pull the plug. He notes that the EU-Turkey deal has dramatically diminished the EU's credibility as a defender of freedom of speech, and press freedom in particular. Turkish prosecutors have opened 1,800 cases against people for insulting Erdogan. This includes journalists, and even children. He said the EU has sold its soul.

A deal would be subject to qualified majority voting in the Council and a simple majority in the EP. Given their record, we doubt that the EP will block a deal if it is backed by both the Commission and the Council. This is why we discount the statement by Schulz. Also we noted that Erdogan himself is talking about visa-free travel by the autumn. We find all this disturbing.

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May 12, 2016

The politics behind Italy's constitutional referendum

There is a discussion in the Italian media on the implications of a No vote in Italy's constitutional referendum in October. The implications would be nearly catastrophic: not only would Matteo Renzi resign, as he made clear on several occasions, but there is a danger that the Italian parliament could not pass a budget for 2017. More importantly, however, there would be no chance of a stable government after the next elections. And, interestingly, the Five Star Movement actually favours a Yes vote because it has most to gain from the constitutional change.

Here is the backdrop: The main issue in the referendum is the Senate. It is currently a co-chamber with equal rights, including the right of passing a vote no confidence on the prime minister. The reform would turn the Senate into a regional chamber, with the job to revise laws. If the referendum fails, the Senate would remain as it is today. Roberto d'Alimonte had an article in Corriere della Sera saying he believes the new electoral law would fail as well if the constitutional law was not approved. This is because the electoral law would only apply to the chamber but not the Senate. It would be impractical to have completely opposite electoral systems for either chamber. But if the No vote prevails, the Senate would survive in its current form, and Senators would be elected on the basis of pure proportional representation. So there would be no point in a first-past-the-post electoral system for the chamber. So, constitutional reform and electoral laws are intricately intertwined. If one falls, so does the other. 

D'Alimonte also referred to recent opinion polls showing that Luigi di Maio, one of the top politicians of the Five Star Movement, would have a good chance of beating Renzi in an election. Francesco Verderami writes a comment in Corriere della Sera this morning that the Five Star Movement would have most to lose if the vote were no - even though paradoxically such a vote would represent a general protest against the entire system. If you do the electoral math, the proposed new system would give the five-star movement a chance to run the country on its own, without the need to form coalitions.

It is indeed ironic that Renzi wanted to change the constitutional to consolidate his own power, but he may end up paving the way for the Five Star Movement. This is why it is generally not a good idea to fiddle with electoral systems and constitutional arrangements in the way it's done in Italy. We are now in a situation that a Yes would benefit the party of Beppe Grillo, while a No vote makes Italy ungovernable - which would favour Grillo in the longer term. An own goal by the establishment.

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May 12, 2016

No censure motion from the French left

The French left failed to get enough signatures to file their own motion of confidence. Only two signatures were missing to get the required 58. On the list there were 13 communists, 10 greens and, more significantly, 28 Socialist rebels. Among them are the habitual "frondeurs" - rebels - but also supporters of Arnauld Montebourg, whose return into politics has been rumoured recently. There was no one from Martine Aubry's camp, though. 

The left-leaning newspaper Liberation called it a bluff, a well-staged failure to get enough votes together. There never was any intention to topple the government, but to save face in front of their own constituencies, so the article. This might be true in the short run, the bill will get through and the "frondeurs" will not vote with the Republicans. But what does this mean for the longer run? This is the worst crisis for the Socialists since 1971, says Gerard Gruneberg in an interview with Les Echos, and could potentially lead to a split of the party. Party governance has been eroded slowly, and if there is no clear candidate in next year's presidential elections it will take the internal battle among Socialists to the extreme.

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May 12, 2016

Sapin under pressure over sexual harassment allegations

The accusations of sexual harassment in the corridors of political power are gaining momentum in France. On Monday eight women accused deputy parliamentary speaker Denis Baupin of sexually harassing them over a number of years. Prosecutors have opened a preliminary investigation into the claims made by colleagues of Baupin in the green party EELV.

This also brought Michel Sapin back to the limelight, and his incident in Davos a year with a female reporter. He presented a public excuse on Tuesday while playing down the incident. In April a book by two female authors described how Sapin approached the journalist who just bent over to pick up her pen, and said: "What are you showing me here?’" and snapped the elastic of her unintentionally exposed panties. Sapin denied this twice, now saying he just made inappropriate remarks about her clothing and placed his hand on her back in a statement to AFP. 

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  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 04, 2018
  • German discourse out of control
  • Wait for European disunity on US tariffs
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 23, 2018
  • Mattarella’s limited options
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 14, 2018
  • Catalonia: plus ça change...
  • Conveney says no to Brexit with border infrastructure
  • Why the noble Lords don't really matter
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 01, 2018
  • What Germany wants to reform, and what not
  • How effective is Macron?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 23, 2018
  • More bad news for the SPD
  • Will Theresa May accept a customs union? The Times says yes. We think so too.
  • A comeback for Marine Le Pen?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 09, 2018
  • Orbán gets his supermajority
  • Riding the wave of resistance
  • The EU’s self-defeating strategy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 27, 2018
  • The IMF's proposals for eurozone reform
  • No concessions from Erdogan
  • Will the UK be shut out of Galileo on Brexit?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 15, 2018
  • Miro Cerar resigns over railway
  • Taking on trade unions over the rail reform
  • How strong is the EU's solidarity with the UK really?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 05, 2018
  • One rock, two vetos, three governments
  • Rutte weighs in
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 19, 2018
  • SPD divided over grand coalition
  • Wauquiez - the French Trump?
  • Why Brexit will be extremely hard to reverse
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 06, 2018
  • Ciudadanos rising
  • Meet the rising star of Dutch populism
  • What to watch out for in British politics
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 24, 2018
  • AfD europhobe to chair of Bundestag's budget committee
  • Watch out for the Labour Party debate on the single market
  • On the productivity puzzle
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 01, 2019
  • AfD now going for the climate change deniers
  • Tancos - a game changer in Portugal's election?
  • January 11, 2018
  • The horse taming the dragon - really?
  • Budget contributions for market access?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 12, 2019
  • DUP opens up to compromise
  • Spain to repeat elections after all
  • January 05, 2018
  • Catalonia's government by Skype
  • The case for EEA membership
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • August 08, 2019
  • A poll on October 31?
  • December 15, 2017
  • Amendment 9 conundrum
  • The negligible GDP impact of the single market
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 11, 2019
  • Focus on election timetable, not prorogation...
  • ...and not on Darroch either
  • December 01, 2017
  • Unemployment insurance for all - nice idea, but does it work?
  • Hard border paradox
  • Could Jeremy Corbyn be the politician to defeat the banks?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 13, 2019
  • On the large and rising risk of a no-deal Brexit
  • Unite and divide - Act II of Edouard Philippe
  • November 17, 2017
  • Germany's climate change hypocrisy
  • Canada minus the plus
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 14, 2019
  • Trump gives Orbán his blessing
  • Outcome of Belgium's parliament election on Sunday totally open
  • Has Trump really got the economics of trade all wrong?
  • November 02, 2017
  • The Impact of Brexit
  • German court of auditors questions diesel tax break
  • On trade and violence
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 15, 2019
  • Finland's far right changes the game
  • Brexit party drawing almost even with the Tories
  • October 18, 2017
  • Veneto and Lombardy to vote on autonomy
  • Portugal's president calls on government over fires
  • Radical ideas for radical times: how to pay off public debt
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 14, 2019
  • A very meaningless vote
  • October 03, 2017
  • A short note about UK politics
  • The impact of the German elections on the euro debate
  • The decline and fall of Martin Schulz and the SPD
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 11, 2019
  • SPD dumps Hartz IV
  • Macron's revival
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 10, 2019
  • Another quiet day in the Commons
  • From Rome with love
  • September 01, 2017
  • Rutte deflates Dutch labour party like a hot air balloon
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • December 14, 2018
  • Running down the clock
  • Macron, Philippe - untouchable no more
  • EP blasts Commission over Babis
  • August 21, 2017
  • Soft, getting softer
  • Tsipras' chances of a boost
  • On the fallacy of a middle-ground option for the eurozone
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 01, 2018
  • Is candidate Merz a keen pro-European?
  • Around the corner - Brexit edition
  • July 28, 2017
  • German government bans Porsche Cayenne
  • More troubles for the AfD
  • Of course there will be a soft transitional period for the UK
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 25, 2018
  • Be careful what you wish for - second referendum edition
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 21, 2019
  • Philippe to brace for more union protests
  • Greens are the electorates' new favourite
  • August 20, 2018
  • ... and a subtle shift in EU policies towards both Russia and Turkey
  • Nothing to celebrate about the end of the bailout programme
  • Support for Brexit holding up
  • June 21, 2017
  • Why has the SPD deflated?
  • Berlusconi’s strategy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • August 27, 2019
  • Remain’s narrowing pathway
  • Macron's diplomatic masterstroke
  • July 09, 2018
  • German panic about Target2
  • AfD level with SPD
  • How the EU could fail
  • June 01, 2017
  • On how to fix the eurozone
  • What happens if there is no Article 50 agreement?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 18, 2019
  • Retaliation threats over drilling
  • May 28, 2018
  • A no-confidence motion that could backfire
  • The political repercussions of a historic referendum in Ireland
  • Why the lack of an international role for the euro matters
  • May 11, 2017
  • Germany rejects IMF’s policy recommendations before they are issued
  • Why Labour is losing
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 15, 2019
  • Finland's far right changes the game
  • Brexit party drawing almost even with the Tories
  • April 16, 2018
  • Italy's and Germany's pained response to the Syria attacks
  • On the end of the eurozone's economic honeymoon
  • Why Bulgaria should stay out of the euro
  • Where shall we meet after Brexit?
  • April 20, 2017
  • Don’t bet on Trump turning globalist
  • A note on UK election polls
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 31, 2019
  • EU will play hardball until February 14, and stick to backstop beyond
  • French left and right moves ahead of EP elections
  • Tighten the belts as the economy prepares for landing
  • February 27, 2018
  • Irish transport prepares for Brexit scenarios
  • One last Dutch referendum
  • Is the CDU a conservative party?
  • March 27, 2017
  • Governing formation troubles - Northern Ireland edition
  • Did Trump present Merkel with a bill for Nato?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 30, 2019
  • A pyrrhic victory for Kurz
  • Will there really be UK elections?
  • November 19, 2018
  • May’s pushback is kicking in
  • January 08, 2018
  • Getting real on Brexit
  • Macron in China
  • March 02, 2017
  • Juncker's scenarios for Europe
  • EU minimum wages are rising
  • No, the Lords didn’t stop Brexit
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 12, 2019
  • What Spain wants from the EU
  • What to focus on in the Brexit procedure, and what not
  • August 28, 2018
  • Urban politics and national crisis - the Irish case
  • How anti-semitism became one of the main issues in British politics
  • November 15, 2017
  • A Christmas bonus for poor Greeks
  • Dim prospects of negotiated de-escalation on Catalonia
  • Macron's favourite to succeed Juncker - first round
  • On sovereignty
  • Gli Azzurri
  • February 03, 2017
  • The Schulz effect is getting huge
  • The post-Brexit boom goes on and on and on
  • A correction on Catalonia
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 18, 2019
  • How the splits on the left and the right will affect Brexit
  • June 04, 2018
  • German discourse out of control
  • Wait for European disunity on US tariffs
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 14, 2019
  • Trump gives Orbán his blessing
  • Outcome of Belgium's parliament election on Sunday totally open
  • Has Trump really got the economics of trade all wrong?
  • October 01, 2018
  • After the referendum, more turmoil in Macedonia
  • What will happen if the UK parliament votes No?
  • Barnier's no-thanks works much better than a yes-please
  • February 19, 2018
  • SPD divided over grand coalition
  • Wauquiez - the French Trump?
  • Why Brexit will be extremely hard to reverse
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • December 01, 2016
  • Will Italian expats swing the referendum result?
  • Why we keep on misreading the polls
  • Si vis pactum, para bellum
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 30, 2019
  • Labour's big day
  • Spain now turns to its next elections
  • On the hypocrisy of the German debt debate
  • October 26, 2018
  • Towards Fine Gael II minority government
  • EP votes for Saudi arms embargo, but who cares?
  • It's not easy being green - French edition
  • April 25, 2018
  • Macron's pitch to Trump
  • Montoro in Schleswig-Holstein
  • The old world and the new
  • October 23, 2017
  • Macron's plans for the European Parliament
  • First phase of Brexit negotiations in final stretch
  • Why the left hates Europe
  • April 23, 2017
  • The demise of the AfD has accelerated dramatically
  • On how France will need to confront Germany
  • October 24, 2016
  • Ceta - the next deadline
  • Who will lead Germany?
  • Peasant party upsets Lithuanian election
  • Ségolène Royal, seriously?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 22, 2019
  • Will Johnson go for elections?
  • How will von der Leyen handle the east?
  • March 07, 2019
  • Some provocative thoughts on liberal democracy in Europe
  • October 24, 2018
  • Can the eurozone be governed without a parliament?
  • EU to grant UK-wide backstop
  • Merkel flip-flops on diesel legislation
  • June 13, 2018
  • Macedonia - a deal hailed internationally and challenged at home
  • Macron - elusive to the left
  • What did Theresa May concede?
  • January 31, 2018
  • A compromise of words
  • The Maybot will go on and on and on
  • September 22, 2017
  • The last German polls
  • May 15, 2017
  • SPD and CDU disagree on how to respond to Macron
  • Was Rajoy blackmailed?
  • The rise of the re-leavers
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • August 30, 2016
  • Brexit facts on the ground
  • Burkinis and Republican primaries
  • The SPD and TTIP
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 15, 2019
  • Germany chooses Huawei for 5G
  • US and EU respond to Turkey - too little, too late
  • August 27, 2019
  • Remain’s narrowing pathway
  • Macron's diplomatic masterstroke
  • July 05, 2019
  • Why it is difficult to legislate against a no-deal Brexit
  • May 20, 2019
  • Far right on the march
  • A plot against the EU - a new weapon to stop Le Pen?
  • April 04, 2019
  • Juncker seeks to pull the plug on no-deal temptations
  • Which campaign promise to break - French edition
  • The failure of strategic thinking and its consequences
  • February 18, 2019
  • How the splits on the left and the right will affect Brexit
  • January 04, 2019
  • Will the AfD become the Dexit party?
  • Romania's corruption problem in the spotlight of its EU presidency
  • November 12, 2018
  • Does Macron really believe in his own 2019 battle plan?
  • A throwaway commentary about a throwaway comment
  • October 01, 2018
  • After the referendum, more turmoil in Macedonia
  • What will happen if the UK parliament votes No?
  • Barnier's no-thanks works much better than a yes-please
  • August 20, 2018
  • ... and a subtle shift in EU policies towards both Russia and Turkey
  • Nothing to celebrate about the end of the bailout programme
  • Support for Brexit holding up
  • July 09, 2018
  • German panic about Target2
  • AfD level with SPD
  • How the EU could fail
  • June 01, 2018
  • Will France and Germany stick together in their response to US trade tariffs?
  • From a eurozone budget to a slush fund
  • April 25, 2018
  • Macron's pitch to Trump
  • Montoro in Schleswig-Holstein
  • The old world and the new
  • March 19, 2018
  • Waiting for Germany
  • Russia’s friends
  • Can the Commons force an extension of the Art 50 period?
  • February 12, 2018
  • What the euro debate is really about
  • How Brexit can still falter
  • January 08, 2018
  • Getting real on Brexit
  • Macron in China
  • December 04, 2017
  • Can Brexit still be stopped?
  • Could Poland open up the Posted Workers Directive again?
  • Has the Bank of England solved the productivity puzzle?
  • October 30, 2017
  • Italy's electoral reform seems to backfire already
  • Bregretometer hits another peak
  • September 29, 2017
  • Is the CDU about to rebel against Merkel?
  • What about defence?
  • What happened to the French mainstream parties?
  • August 29, 2017
  • The deep significance of Labour's Brexit U-turn
  • The day after the SPD loses
  • July 31, 2017
  • Russia sanctions bill becomes US law
  • Spain's Guardia Civil in the eye of the Catalan storm
  • A grand bargain between France and Germany
  • July 03, 2017
  • Can Greece exit its programme without a credit line?
  • The softening Brexit
  • Macron's state of the nation address
  • June 05, 2017
  • What happens to Brexit if Labour wins?
  • What Russia wants
  • May 08, 2017
  • A message of hope
  • Barnier's not so easily agreed Brexit principles
  • The rebirth of the paranoid conspiracy theory
  • April 10, 2017
  • Nein, nein, nein, und nein
  • Sounds like a bad Brexit story, but ain’t
  • On how not to exit the euro
  • March 16, 2017
  • A Polish horror story
  • On the return of industrial policy
  • The limits of the multi-speed Europe
  • February 20, 2017
  • SPD ahead of CDU/CSU
  • Fillon bounces back
  • The Brexit timetable
  • January 27, 2017
  • The Brexit Bill in full
  • Fillon says he would withdraw if charged
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • December 12, 2016
  • Renzi without Renzi
  • Shall we compensate the losers of globalisation?
  • The need for a partnership with China
  • November 22, 2016
  • Towards a transitional deal
  • Estonia's new PM
  • Merkel's depressing plan for a fourth term
  • Why Italy cannot stay in the eurozone
  • November 04, 2016
  • An important decision, not a critical one
  • Europe and Catalonia at the centre of Rajoy's new cabinet
  • Turkey threatens to end refugee deal
  • Everyone against Sarkozy
  • October 17, 2016
  • Ceta is dead for now
  • L’après-Hollande, c'est Hollande
  • SPD against Russia sanctions
  • Nissan to join customs union and other fanciful tales
  • September 30, 2016
  • High drama in the PSOE
  • What happened to Montebourg?
  • Why a hard Brexit is not inevitable
  • September 14, 2016
  • Tusk's confusing message
  • Kenny says European Council won't allow single market access
  • Barroso ups the ante
  • Italy has its Obama-on-Brexit moment
  • August 30, 2016
  • Brexit facts on the ground
  • Burkinis and Republican primaries
  • The SPD and TTIP
  • August 15, 2016
  • Sarkozy to declare his candidacy
  • Do intra-eurozone current account deficits matter?
  • On the failures of modern macroeconomics
  • July 28, 2016
  • Barnier vs Davis
  • Orban's Europe
  • July 15, 2016
  • Celebrations in an age of terror
  • Shadows of a deal
  • Poland blames Germany for Brexit
  • What's behind Gabriel's impending boycott of TTIP
  • July 04, 2016
  • Hard women, hard Brexit
  • We'll miss the EU when it's gone
  • June 23, 2016
  • It's either Brexit, or Brexit - a truly historic choice
  • Brexit copycats
  • The impact of Brexit on Greece
  • Spain's interior minister under fire
  • June 15, 2016
  • An insurrection against Renzi in the PD
  • Syriza to face citizens protests and ND accusations
  • French labour reform protests weaken CGT
  • Why the eurozone crisis is unsolvable
  • June 08, 2016
  • Getting real on debt relief
  • The re-alignment of the Italian right
  • A critique of Germany's Turkey policy
  • June 02, 2016
  • Watch out for a fudge over Turkey
  • With friends like Tusk
  • May 27, 2016
  • French labour law: withdraw, negotiate or force it through?
  • France and Germany seek deeper integration post-Brexit (but not on the eurozone)
  • Merkel wants to renew Russia sanctions
  • Towards a third Spanish election?
  • May 22, 2016
  • Waiting in Austria
  • Greek court puts Turkey deal on hold
  • Sovereignty and rule of law in Poland
  • The age of the disgruntled
  • May 19, 2016
  • Refugee relocation not going well
  • The crisis' toll on the youth
  • What two new Brexit polls may be telling us
  • May 16, 2016
  • Is the Erdogan deal on the brink of collapse?
  • Towards the end of sexism in French politics
  • The case against TTIP
  • May 13, 2016
  • Brexit polls inconclusive, but Leave is getting stronger
  • What future for the Socialist rebels?
  • Christian Kern, a manager, to be the next Austrian chancellor
  • On bank capture of the press