September 08, 2016
Le Pen leads and Macron comes third in polls
The latest poll confirms what columnists in France expected. If Emmanuel Macron were to run in the first round of the presidential elections on his own platform En Marche! he would surpass François Hollande, perform better against Nicolas Sarkozy than against Alan Juppé, and lose some percentage points if Francois Bayrou decided to run. But, under all circumstances, he would only come third in the first round of the presidential elections regardless of the other candidates. So, he will not have enough support to get into the second round no matter what. Hollande has even less support. The second round looks likely to be between Le Pen and the Republican candidate, and Juppé is more likely than Sarkozy to get the centre-left to back him. The question is what will the candidates in the centre and on left will do.
The TFS Sofres poll for Le Figaro, taken three days after Macron quit the government, assumes that Macron will not run in the Socialist primaries but as a candidate of his own movement. After the traitor comments from Francois Hollande, this assumption seems reasonable. The poll suggests that. in case Sarkozy runs, Macron would get 16% against 9% for Bayrou, Hollande 11%, Sarkozy 20% and Le Pen 26%. Without Bayrou, Macron gets 18% against 12% for Hollande, 22% for Sarkozy, and 27% for Le Pen. If Juppé is the Republican candidate and Bayrou is not running, Juppé would perform better than Sarkozy with 25% against 28.5% for Le Pen; Macron would remain at 15%, and Hollande at 11%. Without Macron, Hollande would fare better but still come in only third. Marine Le Pen is leading the polls. There is only one scenario where this is not the case: when Juppé runs against Hollande, without Macron or Bayrou, he would be in the lead with 33% against Le Pen with 28%. Macron would perform best if neither Hollande nor Bayrou were to run and Arnaud Montebourg were the Socialist candidate instead, but with 20% he still would trail behind Sarkozy (22%) or Juppé (27%) and Marine Le Pen (27%/27.5%).
Another poll shows that 9 out of 10 oppose François Hollande's candidacy, according to this article. With 88% this is 4pp higher than in July. Fully 72% of left voters do not want Hollande in the game. Analysts say that, barring a miracle, Hollande is finished politically. In this case, Macron is the favourite candidate of the left (26%).