We use cookies to help improve and maintain our site. More information.
close

September 28, 2016

Sarkozy might have found his real enemy

While Francois Hollande is trying to get more people behind him with the launch of a new website, Notre Idee de la France, Nicolas Sarkozy gets knocked down by one of his former advisors, Patrick Buisson. In 2014 Nicolas Sarkozy learned that Buisson had been recording their conversations since 2005 without his knowledge. His response on TV was that he had been betrayed in the past, but hardly ever like that. To be called a traitor was not something that Buisson, the head of a history channel, would leave to rest. Instead, he worked over the last two years on a book, a hatchet-job on the man he once adored. Cecile Cornudet writes that, from all the negative media attention that Sarkozy gets and uses to enhance his omnipresence, it is the attack by his former adviser that could prove lethal. His picture of Sarkozy is one of a narcissistic and cynical president, obsessed with his image and with women. Last year, Buisson was cited by Le Monde saying that Sarkozy might keep his nose above water until this autumn, but then he will attack. Let the battle begin.

Show Comments Write a Comment

September 28, 2016

Brexit delusions fading slowly

One of the elements of the evolving Brexit story to watch out for is lack of agreement among the EU-27 in its negotiating stance towards Britain once Article 50 is launched. We know that Berlin would not mind giving the UK a soft Brexit - with immigration controls and full access to the single market. But there is no majority for that position in the EU-27.

Now Nicholas Sarkozy is adding another twist. The day after he is elected president, he says, he will have written the draft of an entire new EU treaty, which we would then graciously hand down on to Berlin and various minions in Brussels for speedy ratification. The beauty of this new treaty, according to Sarkozy, is that it will allow the UK to reverse its position on Brexit. This is political entertainment at the highest level. Our favourite sentence - from the FT's story - is the following:

"I can’t accept to lose Europe’s second-largest economy while we are negotiating with Turkey over its EU membership."

Tell that to the Brits - that they are allowed to remain in the EU whilst simultaneously getting Turkey in as well. We reckon that about 90% of what is said or printed on Brexit stems from ignorance - in Britain's case, ignorance of the treaties, and in Sarkozy's case, ignorance of British politics.

Amid all this noise the contours of a Brexit are beginning to emerge: Britain will have left the EU before the next elections. It will extricate itself from the single market over time. And it will seek to negotiate a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement with the EU.

The following comment is also quite revealing. It is from Hugo Dixon, who heads Infacts, a group that tried to keep the Referendum campaign honest. One of us was a member of that group, but resigned in protest after the group came out in favour of a second referendum or other technical devices to overturn the vote. It seems that, even there, some sense of reality is returning. Dixon notes that developments in the Labour Party not only suggest that Brexit will happen, but that it will be relatively hard. Support for a second referendum is falling fast, including for a second referendum on the exit terms, which he has been supporting. Jeremy Corbyn only wants access to the single market - a meaningless phrase - but not membership of it. Even Labour moderates now seem to accept immigration controls, which obviously reduce the post-Brexit options.

We also noted a comment by Matthias Dopfner, head of the Springer publisher group in Germany, according to which Brexit would be good for the UK economy. The reason we include this comment is not that this man has any special insights, but that the statement will be seized on in the internal British debate. The more the Conservatives believe in the economic neutrality of Brexit, the more they will be prepared to risk a hard brake.

And finally we have an update on market developments since the June 23 referendum. Corrected for the exchange rate, the FT-SE 100 underperformed the main European indices, except Italy's. It has been down by 4.3% since the referendum, while the Ibex was down 2.2%, the CAC40 down by 1.5%, and the Dax up by 1.02%. Sterling is 16.8% down against the yen, 12.1% down against the dollar and 11.0% down against the euro.

Show Comments Write a Comment

This is the public section of the Eurointelligence Professional Briefing, which focuses on the geopolitical aspects of our news coverage. It appears daily at 2pm CET. The full briefing, which appears at 9am CET, is only available to subscribers. Please click here for a free trial, and here for the Eurointelligence home page.

 

Recent News

  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 02, 2017
  • The Impact of Brexit
  • German court of auditors questions diesel tax break
  • On trade and violence
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 18, 2017
  • Veneto and Lombardy to vote on autonomy
  • Portugal's president calls on government over fires
  • Radical ideas for radical times: how to pay off public debt
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 03, 2017
  • A short note about UK politics
  • The impact of the German elections on the euro debate
  • The decline and fall of Martin Schulz and the SPD
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 01, 2017
  • Rutte deflates Dutch labour party like a hot air balloon
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • August 21, 2017
  • Soft, getting softer
  • Tsipras' chances of a boost
  • On the fallacy of a middle-ground option for the eurozone
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 28, 2017
  • German government bans Porsche Cayenne
  • More troubles for the AfD
  • Of course there will be a soft transitional period for the UK
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 21, 2017
  • Why has the SPD deflated?
  • Berlusconi’s strategy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 01, 2017
  • On how to fix the eurozone
  • What happens if there is no Article 50 agreement?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 11, 2017
  • Germany rejects IMF’s policy recommendations before they are issued
  • Why Labour is losing
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 16, 2018
  • Italy's and Germany's pained response to the Syria attacks
  • On the end of the eurozone's economic honeymoon
  • Why Bulgaria should stay out of the euro
  • Where shall we meet after Brexit?
  • April 20, 2017
  • Don’t bet on Trump turning globalist
  • A note on UK election polls
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 27, 2018
  • Irish transport prepares for Brexit scenarios
  • One last Dutch referendum
  • Is the CDU a conservative party?
  • March 27, 2017
  • Governing formation troubles - Northern Ireland edition
  • Did Trump present Merkel with a bill for Nato?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 08, 2018
  • Getting real on Brexit
  • Macron in China
  • March 02, 2017
  • Juncker's scenarios for Europe
  • EU minimum wages are rising
  • No, the Lords didn’t stop Brexit
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 15, 2017
  • A Christmas bonus for poor Greeks
  • Dim prospects of negotiated de-escalation on Catalonia
  • Macron's favourite to succeed Juncker - first round
  • On sovereignty
  • Gli Azzurri
  • February 03, 2017
  • The Schulz effect is getting huge
  • The post-Brexit boom goes on and on and on
  • A correction on Catalonia
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 19, 2018
  • SPD divided over grand coalition
  • Wauquiez - the French Trump?
  • Why Brexit will be extremely hard to reverse
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • December 01, 2016
  • Will Italian expats swing the referendum result?
  • Why we keep on misreading the polls
  • Si vis pactum, para bellum
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 20, 2018
  • Macron at home
  • EU has rejected all UK proposals on Northern Irish border
  • Could there be a Five Star-Forza Italia government?
  • October 19, 2017
  • Germany is softening up over Brexit
  • The French budget and the wealthy
  • Will Borut Pahor win re-election as Slovenian president?
  • April 20, 2017
  • Don’t bet on Trump turning globalist
  • A note on UK election polls
  • October 21, 2016
  • Wallonia says No for the third time
  • Do you remember that Dutch referendum on Ukraine?
  • How narratives are destroying the EU
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 30, 2018
  • Will Puigdemont be Catalan premier today?
  • Some thoughts about the German car industry
  • A short note on Italian coalition maths
  • September 22, 2017
  • The last German polls
  • May 15, 2017
  • SPD and CDU disagree on how to respond to Macron
  • Was Rajoy blackmailed?
  • The rise of the re-leavers
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • August 30, 2016
  • Brexit facts on the ground
  • Burkinis and Republican primaries
  • The SPD and TTIP
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 17, 2018
  • CDU's executive committees reaffirms eurosceptic position
  • Macron in Strasburg
  • March 16, 2018
  • Pellegrini to succeed Fico
  • Slovenia may go to early elections in late May
  • The case for crypto-currencies
  • February 12, 2018
  • What the euro debate is really about
  • How Brexit can still falter
  • January 10, 2018
  • Yes, the choice is between Canada and Norway
  • Who is resisting Macron and his government?
  • Greece and Macedonia to solve name dispute
  • December 11, 2017
  • A new era for the French right
  • Growing scepticism of a grand coalition
  • November 13, 2017
  • A pro-European list: Wauquiez' nightmare
  • Catalan separatism isn't going away
  • Why oh why does Germany behave the way it does?
  • Why the four freedoms matter
  • October 16, 2017
  • What‘s the deep meaning of the elections in Lower Saxony?
  • Can Brexit be revoked?
  • Macron's grand narrative
  • September 19, 2017
  • German populist vote - as seen from the outside
  • May's total Brexit power grab
  • August 25, 2017
  • Whatever happened to red-red-green?
  • Reshuffle - Greek edition
  • Is the Norway option really dead?
  • July 31, 2017
  • Russia sanctions bill becomes US law
  • Spain's Guardia Civil in the eye of the Catalan storm
  • A grand bargain between France and Germany
  • July 07, 2017
  • Is Emmanuel Macron just another Matteo Renzi?
  • The real obstacles to a Brexit deal
  • Why Nordstream 2 should be delayed
  • On why the G20 won’t solve the main problem
  • June 14, 2017
  • Minority governments can be stronger and more stable than you think
  • The anti-Corbyn
  • Watch out for Berlusconi
  • May 23, 2017
  • When events intrude
  • On Italy's obsession with voting systems
  • May 02, 2017
  • An accident waiting to happen
  • Matteo Renzi wins PD primaries
  • So much for the Schulz effect
  • April 10, 2017
  • Nein, nein, nein, und nein
  • Sounds like a bad Brexit story, but ain’t
  • On how not to exit the euro
  • March 23, 2017
  • Slow-motion train crash in Catalonia
  • Plan B for the Republicans?
  • March 05, 2017
  • Poland vs Tusk
  • Juppé - a recovered candidate?
  • Will Italy leave the euro?
  • February 17, 2017
  • Watch out for instability of the Balkans
  • The economic consequences of Trump for Europe
  • On muddled thinking in Ireland
  • February 02, 2017
  • Will it come to the use of force in Catalonia?
  • The day Brexit became irreversible
  • Can Trump and May succeed?
  • January 19, 2017
  • Something not quite right about the transitional deal
  • Why Trump was right on Europe
  • Can the internet predict better than polls?
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • December 12, 2016
  • Renzi without Renzi
  • Shall we compensate the losers of globalisation?
  • The need for a partnership with China
  • November 28, 2016
  • And now what Monsieur Fillion?
  • The inescapable logic of an interim agreement
  • On Germany's foreign policy post-Trump
  • How to lose against the populists
  • November 18, 2016
  • Habermas on the role of the left in the rise of the right
  • November 09, 2016
  • Brexit all over
  • October 31, 2016
  • Will the quake help Renzi?
  • Is Montebourg an alternative to Hollande?
  • The trials of Geert Wilders
  • October 24, 2016
  • Ceta - the next deadline
  • Who will lead Germany?
  • Peasant party upsets Lithuanian election
  • Ségolène Royal, seriously?
  • October 17, 2016
  • Ceta is dead for now
  • L’après-Hollande, c'est Hollande
  • SPD against Russia sanctions
  • Nissan to join customs union and other fanciful tales
  • October 12, 2016
  • Are we headed towards a military east-west confrontation?
  • October 07, 2016
  • Merkel and Hollande agree on hard Brexit
  • The cost of the PSOE's abstention
  • Citizens - the new gadget for election speeches
  • October 03, 2016
  • Hard, harder, hardest
  • PSOE cuts its nose to spite its face
  • In defence of Jeremy Corbyn
  • September 30, 2016
  • High drama in the PSOE
  • What happened to Montebourg?
  • Why a hard Brexit is not inevitable
  • September 29, 2016
  • The PSOE's slow-motion implosion
  • Are there legal obstacles to Brexit? We don't think so