February 14, 2017
Elites vs underdogs - French edition
If you look at the voters of Emmanuel Macron, you might wonder what his chances are to win against Marine Le Pen. Ifop looked at the profile of those who intend to vote for him. One of the striking statistics was that Macron only gets 14% from workers, the same as Jean-Luc Mélenchon (!). In this class Marine Le Pen reigns with 37% support, while Benoit Hamon does slightly better than the others with 18%. The most telling feature, in our view, is that the more educated people are more likely to vote for Macron and the less educated go for Marine Le Pen:
Education has been one of the dividing lines also in the Brexit vote and the American elections, and we all know what happened there. Add to this that Macron is the urban favourite, but not in the outskirts, the infamous banlieues, and you end with a candidate of the elites against a candidate of the underdogs. And it is not that immigrants living in those banlieus are against Le Pen, as one might expect. Many of them have been there for some time now and the last thing they want is more immigration.
So if Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron end up in the second round, will we see another stand-off between the elite candidate and the underdog star? They effectively stand for two different world views. Le Pen divides the world into globalists and patriots, Macron into progressives and conservatives, notes Journal du Dimanche. In the US, Chris Arnade saw Trump's victory as a result of the social isolation of the uneducated whites. Could this also happen in France?