March 24, 2017
French Polls suggest two battles
A poll aggregator for France shows two main battles, and recent polls suggest a change in the lead position: Emmanuel Macron gains momentum and surpasses Marine Le Pen in several of the most recent polls. And, for the first time, Jean-Luc Mélenchon gets ahead of Benoît Hamon.
Macron stood up to the test of the TV debate and enlarged his voter and political-supporter base, while Marine Le Pen’s support is stable between 25%-27%. She did not benefit from the TV debate so far, and thus languishes at the lower end, 25% in the most recent polls.
Mélenchon is improving his poll performance, while Hamon has been losing momentum for some time now. Some of the Socialists from the Hollande/Valls camp are leaving the boat to join Macron, and Hamon's big rally in Paris seem to have made no difference to the polling. Mélenchon benefited from a rally in Paris and his performance in the TV debate.
Among the small candidates we also note the rise in the polls of the nationalist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who rejects the euro, opposes several EU treaties, and supports Brexit. He increased his polling, coming up to 5% in the latest polls. In 2012, he got 1.79% of the votes.
Macron got another boost from the support by defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. Drian is respected among the left and the right for his work, and he already helped Macron write up his defence programme. He is the third cabinet member to join En marche!. Macron also got support from the right, a supporter of Alan Juppé and minister under him, Philippe Douste-Blazy. In an interview he said that Macron is perceived as a beacon of hope in the current climate of a descending Fillon and a disappointing Hamon, and in a world where the differences between left and right seem increasingly artificial.