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July 25, 2017

The impact of Duda's veto

Andrzej Duda has vetoed the legal system reforms passed by the Law and Justice (PiS) majority in the Sejm, the Polish Parliament. As we wrote on Friday Duda had previously suggested he would veto the law reforming the Supreme Court unless it was reformed. But Duda's veto surprised observers because it also extended to a second law reforming the National Council of the Judiciary. The veto is significant because he had been expected to toe the party line, even though he had resigned from the PiS when he became president. In fact, he had played a key role in the first controversy of the PiS government, involving the Constitutional Court which remains gridlocked as a result. Now, however, PiS loyalists are following the lead of PiS strongman Jaroslaw Kaczynski in accusing Duda of stabbing the party (or the nation) in the back. In an editorial at Rzeczpopolita, Boguslaw Chrabota writes that nothing will be the same in Polish politics after Duda's move, which he calls an emancipation from the PiS. Some people speculate on whether this might be the end of Kaczynski. While this is probably an exaggeration, it is possible that Duda's veto will embolden moderates within the PiS to oppose Kaczynski. At the very least, Duda threw the PiS leadership into confusion.

The Sejm will now go into recess, and will have to reconsider the vetoed legislation after the summer. To overcome Duda's veto the PiS needs a three-fifths' majority, which it doesn't have, so it will have to find compromises with other political parties. Duda said he would release his own proposals to replace the vetoed laws within two months. We knew Duda wanted the Supreme Court appointments to require a qualified, rather than simple, majority in the Sejm. It is not clear what the objection is to the second vetoed bill on the National Council of the Judiciary, a governing body which appoints ordinary judges.

The leader of the main opposition party, Grzegorz Schetyna, focused on the fact that there is a third law that Duda hasn't vetoed, and which gives the justice minister the power to appoint the presiding judge at each lower court. This has been criticised because it gives the justice minister control of both the prosecutor and the presiding judge for a case. Duda's spokesman Krzysztof Lapinski denied that the veto is a no-confidence vote on the justice minister, but just a technical disagreement on the details of the laws. Continuing with the damage limitation, he also denied that the veto sets up a confrontation between the president and the government. Chrabota's editorial agrees this does not signal the start of a war between the president and the government, while congratulating Duda for his courage.

Lapinski said the veto had been the result of substantive legal analysis by the president with his advisors. He denied that the veto was motivated by the street protests, which had lasted for a week and had numbered in the thousands or the tens of thousands depending on the sources. But Lapinski also said that the president was not blind to them. It is also possible that Duda bent to pressure from the EU and in particular from Donald Tusk who released a statement before the weekend asking Duda to work to reach a compromise to preserve the rule of law. On balance, we think it's most likely that Duda responded to the opposition of the overwhelming majority of the Polish legal profession, followed by the public protests, rather than to pressure from Tusk or the EU generally. 

As to future political trends in Poland, we note that Rzeczpospolita has a poll showing that the PiS actually increased its electoral lead over the opposition despite the controversy, though it would not gain another absolute majority because it had lost significant support since the previous elections. It is the second time that the PiS failed to carry through a legislative project in six months. In February, the Czarny Protest (black protest) forced the PiS to withdraw its proposed law to restrict abortion rights. It seems, therefore, that the PiS remains popular for its economic agenda which emphasises social protections, and because the Polish public is still dissatisfied with the balance of the previous PO governments which were also perceived as having fostered corruption. However, on its radically conservative social agenda and on the attempt to control the judiciary, the PiS seems out of touch with the broader public.

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July 25, 2017

How to undo Brexit

When people speak about the possibility of a Brexit reversal, we note the sentiment is often expressed in rather indirect notions - of people having a collective change of heart, and the like. It is not easy even to draw up a theoretical scenario of how this translates into a political decision. 

Michael Heseltine, who has been a ardent pro-Remain campaigner beyond last year’s referendum, is now telling us how a change of heart could happen:

"If, as I anticipate, public opinion on Europe moves against Brexit, be sure Labour will change with it. We [the Conservatives] could be left holding the baby. It will be too late to recognise the danger when the vote of confidence is called."

The statement is highly revealing. There can be no return from Brexit without a shift in the views of the Labour Party (plus the minor details of another elections to be held before March 2019, and won by Labour). The trouble is that the Labour Party is almost as divided on Europe as the Tories, and these divisions came out in full yesterday. Barry Gardiner, Labour’s shadow trade secretary, came out against continued membership of the single market and the customs union, as some Labour MPs are now advocating. Gardiner noted that this would violate the Leave voters’ four objectives, as he sees them: ending free movement of people; regaining sovereignty; freedom from the ECJ; no more EU budget contributions. 

The Guardian reports one other shadow cabinet member as saying that the issue of single market membership was not settled within the Labour party. The New Statesman, meanwhile, reports that Jeremy Corbyn saying yesterday that mass immigration from the EU had destroyed the conditions for British workers. This does not sound to us as though Labour is about to change its position on Brexit. It is, of course, possible that Labour may do so in case of a massive economic downturn.

And finally, we note a comment by Rachel Sylvester, who says that Brexit has not healed the divisions of the Tory Party but only made them worse. She quoted one minister as saying that the Tory party will, however, not have a leadership election until after Brexit. 

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July 25, 2017

Front National: Frexit or not?

The Front National is about to revise its programme, and at the heart of this is euro exit, writes Journal du Dimanche. After Marine Le Pen lost the presidential elections and the party only got eight MPs at the legislative elections rather than the 15 required for a parliamentary group, despite a strong showing in the polls, Marine Le Pen had pledged to "deeply renew" the party. 

There are two opposing views inside the FN, represented by Florian Philippot and Nicolas Bay, respectively vice president and general secretary of the party. Bay does not consider euro exit as essential, and he even advocates that the euro has certain advantages for France such as better protecting the country from speculative attacks. Philippot, by contrast, considers Frexit as necessary to regain France’s sovereignty, and any delay a waste of time. He had threatened in May to resign if the party dropped Frexit from its agenda. 

Last weekend the party went for a sort of murky middle ground: Frexit is still on the agenda, but it would not be a priority and would only happen at the end of an eventual presidency, after a referendum. The party now has until September to refine its euro exit strategy, but what is clear now is that Philippot is there to stay.

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  • Montebourg en avant
  • Moisi on Sarkozy's chances
  • Binary choices
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 07, 2019
  • What did Conte know?
  • August 27, 2019
  • Remain’s narrowing pathway
  • Macron's diplomatic masterstroke
  • July 10, 2019
  • Turkish drilling off Cyprus - a test case for the EU
  • Labour’s new Brexit policy is not really a shift
  • June 03, 2019
  • Reinventing the French right without Wauquiez
  • Tory leadership election is between feasible and unfeasible Brexit options
  • April 29, 2019
  • Labour's national executive to vote on second referendum
  • What the debate about electric cars says about Germany
  • March 25, 2019
  • An object lesson in realpolitik
  • On the probability of a no-deal Brexit
  • February 18, 2019
  • How the splits on the left and the right will affect Brexit
  • January 14, 2019
  • Our Brexit predictions
  • 1789 - Macron's version
  • Tsipras calls confidence vote after Kammenos pulls out
  • December 14, 2018
  • Running down the clock
  • Macron, Philippe - untouchable no more
  • EP blasts Commission over Babis
  • November 14, 2018
  • Now what?
  • October 15, 2018
  • Black Brexit smoke
  • Bettel can relax and stay in office
  • Solving the crime vs solving the problem
  • September 17, 2018
  • About the new partnership between Russia and China
  • EU ponders Irish backstop protocol to help May
  • August 20, 2018
  • ... and a subtle shift in EU policies towards both Russia and Turkey
  • Nothing to celebrate about the end of the bailout programme
  • Support for Brexit holding up
  • July 20, 2018
  • Why preparations for no-deal Brexit are a positive development
  • On confirmation bias in the Brexit commentary
  • June 25, 2018
  • Trump's car tariff to come early
  • On the lack of a sharp focus in the eurozone debate
  • June 01, 2018
  • Will France and Germany stick together in their response to US trade tariffs?
  • From a eurozone budget to a slush fund
  • May 09, 2018
  • A moment of truth in the Brexit talks
  • A leap of faith, Mr Kierkegaard?
  • April 16, 2018
  • Italy's and Germany's pained response to the Syria attacks
  • On the end of the eurozone's economic honeymoon
  • Why Bulgaria should stay out of the euro
  • Where shall we meet after Brexit?
  • March 26, 2018
  • On the run no more
  • Terrorist attack will challenge Macron
  • A double-whammy of geopolitical and financial uncertainty
  • March 05, 2018
  • One rock, two vetos, three governments
  • Rutte weighs in
  • February 12, 2018
  • What the euro debate is really about
  • How Brexit can still falter
  • January 22, 2018
  • Carles Puigdemont's flying circus
  • Macedonia and the insurrection of Greek patriotism
  • On the real hurdles for Brexit revocation
  • And the satellites, too
  • January 05, 2018
  • Catalonia's government by Skype
  • The case for EEA membership
  • December 20, 2017
  • Down with the gown
  • How to overcome the political gridlock in Italy
  • Varoufakis is suing the ECB
  • December 04, 2017
  • Can Brexit still be stopped?
  • Could Poland open up the Posted Workers Directive again?
  • Has the Bank of England solved the productivity puzzle?
  • November 20, 2017
  • Showdown over Northern Ireland
  • Castaner and his list confirmed
  • Gennimata to lead the new left alliance
  • Brexit‘s ultimate irony
  • November 06, 2017
  • Pressures on EU rise over Catalonia
  • German pre-coalition talks hit glitch
  • If you thought UK politics couldn‘t get worse...
  • October 24, 2017
  • Is Kaczynski tired of ruling behind the scenes?
  • An era of movements instead of parties?
  • On the decline of the traditional parties
  • October 13, 2017
  • Why Austria’s vote matters
  • What a Paris diesel ban would mean for Europe's car industry
  • A Dutch referendum on the Dutch referendum?
  • October 02, 2017
  • Catalonia recalls EU and eurozone instability
  • French trade unions increase pressure over labour reforms
  • Watch out for a political accident in the UK
  • Municipal elections boost Portugal's Socialists
  • September 22, 2017
  • The last German polls
  • September 13, 2017
  • Why the Turkey negotiations will continue
  • September 05, 2017
  • On the Turkish question
  • Macron's unemployment insurance reform, next?
  • Labour to vote against the Repeal Bill
  • August 29, 2017
  • The deep significance of Labour's Brexit U-turn
  • The day after the SPD loses
  • August 21, 2017
  • Soft, getting softer
  • Tsipras' chances of a boost
  • On the fallacy of a middle-ground option for the eurozone
  • August 03, 2017
  • Commons to vote whether to keep UK in universe
  • Syriza uses eduction bill to reconnect with grassroots
  • July 31, 2017
  • Russia sanctions bill becomes US law
  • Spain's Guardia Civil in the eye of the Catalan storm
  • A grand bargain between France and Germany
  • July 28, 2017
  • German government bans Porsche Cayenne
  • More troubles for the AfD
  • Of course there will be a soft transitional period for the UK
  • July 26, 2017
  • Has Schulz blown it?
  • Housing benefits cuts expose Macron's weakness
  • July 25, 2017
  • The impact of Duda's veto
  • How to undo Brexit
  • Front National: Frexit or not?