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September 22, 2017

The last German polls

The German media have essentially given up covering the elections, but we should be mentally prepared for the outcome not to be quite what we expect. The most important number to note is the still-high number of undecideds - 37% of the electorate - which is extraordinary large with only two days to go until the election. This is telling us to expect surprises, especially for the smaller parties. While the CDU/CSU will undoubtedly emerge as the largest party, it is impossible to forecast which of the two or three coalition options will be the most likely. They are all well within the error margins of the polls. What we will be looking out for on Sunday at 6pm CET, when the first exit polls are published, is whether CDU/CSU and FDP will have a joint vote of around 48% or more; whether the SPD is closer to 20% or to 25% - the lower the number, the less likely they are prepared to take part in another grand coalition; and, of course, whether the AfD is above 10% as some of the recent polls suggest.

We take note of the latest ZDF TV poll. Last weekend, this was the poll that gave the SPD 23%, while the ARD TV poll only gave the SPD 20%. Last night’s ZDF also seem to confirm the downward trend of the SPD - which it now has at 21.5%. That poll also has the AfD at over 10%.

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