We use cookies to help improve and maintain our site. More information.
close

October 11, 2018

How to shrink the Irish border

We are in a critical phase in the Brexit negotiations, but we are certainly not close to a deal as some reports suggested yesterday. We recall similarly statements during the Greek crisis in 2015. It is the oldest negotiation trick in the book, aimed to put pressure on the other side in the final stages of a long and hard negotiation. 

We still don’t see the UK parliamentary math stacking up in favour of an agreed Brexit deal, at least not yet. It will invariably shift, but until that happens we don’t see much room for manouevre.

The biggest news yesterday were reports suggesting the possible beginnings of such a shift. But it goes in two directions. The DUP has hardened its position after Arlene Foster's meetings in Brussels, and is now threatening to vote against the budget thus effectively ending its support for Theresa May’s minority government. We discount that threat because it would trigger new elections - not immediately but certainly in 2019. But the statement is also telling us that the DUP is not yet on board for a Brexit deal - to put this mildly.

On the other side May is talking to some 20-30 Labour MPs who are considering to support an agreement as they prefer any deal to a hard Brexit. Sebastian Payne argues in the FT that the parliamentary arithmetic is beginning to shift in May’s favour. The 20-30 Labour MPs are not beholden to Jeremy Corbyn, who is expected to impose a three-line whip on his MPs to reject the deal. All of these 20-30 MPs are willing, in principle, to break the whip. Payne also argues that the much-threatened Tory rebellion is likely to shrink to a small group of hardcore Brexiteers. Payne’s rule of thumb is that parliamentary rebellions usually shrink to a quarter by the time it comes to a vote. We also believe that the rebellion will weaken in the coming weeks and months, but to secure agreement May needs two things to happen at the same time: the number of Tory rebels must not be much larger than the number of Labour rebels; and the DUP needs to support her. May can hardly afford to lose the 10 DUP votes without securing off-setting support either from Labour or her own ranks. What complicates the matter further is that the demands of the Labour MPs and those of the Brexiteers are diametrically opposed. Whatever direction May moves towards, she will lose some support.

In his statement in the European Parliament yesterday Michel Barnier indirectly alluded to the big decision that has yet to be made, which is one between a customs union as the end state of Brexit and a free-trade agreement. If May pivots towards a customs union, she may gain more support from Labour MPs and the DUP. But that would maximise the Tory rebellion. We doubt this is the way she will go. If she moves towards an FTA, she might placate some her own rebels, but she may find it harder to keep the Labour MPs and the DUP on board.

Barnier gave details on some of the technical discussions that are currently taking place. We note that some UK newspapers are very confused about the three stages of Brexit - the transition period, a very likely interim period that involves membership of a customs union, and the yet undecided final state. The technical discussions on the Irish border relate to the latter. Barnier said the EU was willing to consider technical solutions to shift some of the border control formalities into companies. We very much agree with him when he talks about the need to de-dramatise the Irish border issue. It is of the kind of issues that appear to be huge in political discussions, but then disappear as you approach them. We believe that even in a scenario of a transitional phase ending in a WTO regime, the border can be substantially softened. Many of the technical points Barnier talked about like barcode scanning or veterinary controls can be carried out away from the border under any regime. 

Both the end state and the transition modalities towards it are the big outstanding political problems - both for the UK and the EU. May will today gather her inner cabinet for a briefing on the latest development, another sign that there is movement in the debate ahead of next week’s summit.   

Show Comments Write a Comment

October 11, 2018

The people versus the motor car

The European car industry has, for the first time ever, lost the protection of politics. Even German newspapers and self-proclaimed car experts, who have been deriding the debate about electric cars and artificial intelligence as hysterical, are now talking about the beginning of the end of the fuel-driven car. This follows the decision by environment ministers to reduce emissions of new cars by 35% by 2030. Many experts and commentators had been in denial because they believed that the German government would find a way to stop this trend and continue to protect the industry. We even heard the argument that the targets are physically impossible to meet simply because VW and other German car makers did not have the capacity to produce the number of electric cars that will be required to meet the overall emissions targets - which ignores that French car makers have been focusing on electric car development for many years already. They never even considered the possibility that companies from South Korea and Japan might fill that gap, especially as their imports tariffs will fall towards zero until recently agreed trade deals. Or that China is technically ahead of German in the development of batteries and electrical engines. The century-old predominance of the European car industry rested on its know-how on engines, which was hard to replicate. Electric engines are as different to fuel-driven engines as computers are to typewriters. 

Sueddeutsche Zeitung quotes the head of VW as saying that the number of jobs in its German factories will fall by 100,000 in the next decade, an estimate we still consider relatively optimistic. We suspect that the compromise agreement in the council of ministers is likely to be hardened a little during the arbitration process between council and European Parliament, which demanded a 40% reduction. FAZ notes that the two might meet half-way, which would suggest a forced emissions reduction of 37.5%.

What makes these targets so fiendishly difficult for the industry is the interaction with the diesel scandal. The German car industry’s single-minded focus on diesel cars was based on the calculation that they have much lower CO2 emissions than petrol cars. With continued predominance of diesel the newly-agreed CO2 targets would have been possible to meet. But diesel has very high emissions of nitrogen oxide, a gas blamed for tens of thousands additional deaths per year in European cities, and nitrogen dioxide, another greenhouse gas. The whole point of the cheating devices had been to suppress the emissions of those gases. Now that cities are imposing diesel bans, the car industry’s plan B had been to step up production of petrol cars, but this strategy is now double-crossed by the new CO2 emissions targets. 

FAZ thus calls the decision a quota for electric cars. While this is technically not correct, it has a similar effect. It is a development the German industry had sought to avoid because it is not one in which they have a natural leadership. We would add to that a forecast of our own: the import quota for cars will have to rise substantially for the EU to meet its own emission standards. This will become of the biggest factors driving the inevitable de-industrialisation of Europe - a socio-economic shift which nowadays has widespread political support but for which the EU and its member states are not prepared.

Show Comments Write a Comment

October 11, 2018

Timmermans volunteers as social democratic spitzenkandidat

We had encouraged our readers earlier this week not to shoot the social democratic ambulance driving bravely into the blizzard of the next EU elections; we would like to reiterate that call now that a new volunteer has stepped forward to take the steering wheel.

After the little-known Maros Sefcovic, Frans Timmermans, one of the European Commission’s big hitters, has come out as the second aspirant from within the institution to enter the race to be the Party of European Socialists’ spitzenkandidat.

Timmermans is a big beast in Brussels. As the man in charge of pursuing breaches of fundamental rights in member states, the outspoken Dutchman has built up the kind of name recognition most commissioners can only dream of. If the PES does indeed nominate him at their congress in December in Lisbon to be their man to succeed Jean-Claude Juncker, they will field a polyglot candidate with an unimpeachable cv: before joining the Commission, Timmermans served his country as foreign minister, and his tenure in Brussels is generally seen as a success. 

So if no competitor other than Sefcovic appears, will Timmermans be a shoo-in? As Politico reports, Timmermans has won the all-important backing of Germany’s social democrats, who despite their electoral woes at home will remain big enough to be the key power-broker in the PES. Unless another hopeful of similar political weight steps forward –  there is no one in sight – we believe Timmermans' stature will make him very difficult to oppose, and this despite the awkwardly poor showing of his own Dutch PvdA in recent Dutch elections.

On the face of it, a spitzenkandidat Timmermans will clearly be an asset for a PES currently looking set to lose its traditional second place in the all-important ranking of groups in the European Parliament. Upon closer inspection, Timmermans could just as clearly become a bit of a problem. For one, Timmermans, like every proper Dutchman, is a vocal debt-and deficit-hawk: electoral poison for notoriously über-Keynesian French socialists who can ill afford to see their tiny vote shrink even further as a result of blunt Timmermans comments about the recklessness of excessive debt.

Second, Timmermans’ recent track-record as a fighter for EU fundamental democratic norms means that under his leadership, the PES would be very much competing for the same political space with the new EU-wide alliance against hard-right populists Emmanuel Macron is currently working to forge with other centrist leaders such as Mark Rutte. As a consequence, social-democratic policies on social welfare issues might easily pushed to the sidelines of such a debate. Finally, his recent Commission job has made Timmermans a highly polarising figure in the EU’s Eastern member states, with a clear danger of deepening the West-East divide if he runs as PES spitzenkandidat.

So pity the PES strategists — the ambulance might soon need a new driver, but the man on the job might bring as many problems as he solves. The only consolation for social democrats will be that the European People’s Party is hopelessly mired in its own big trouble, meaning what to do about Viktor Orbán; that Macron’s centrists and the European liberals are viciously struggling to get their act together, with the infighting on the way to a breakthrough agreement now getting embarrassingly public; and that far-right harmony is far from certain either, if one looks at some of the recent to-and-fro between Matteo Salvini and Marine Le Pen.   

Show Comments Write a Comment

October 11, 2018

Golden visa report hits hard at member states

We have already written about the less-than-odorous de-facto sale of residence permits – often leading to citizenship - by some EU member states to rich foreigners, some of whom made their fortune in ways the law disapproves of. Two NGOs, Global Witness and Transparency International, have now published a report making the scale of the problem apparent. According to the authors, these golden visa schemes have generated a staggering €25bn of FDI in the last decade. Cyprus tops the list, having raised €4.8bn since 2013. The report makes for some juicy reading, with several member states little more than perfunctory in their golden-visa vetting. The authors call for the introduction of an EU-wide vetting scheme for golden visas and, in the current climate of stepping–up EU activities against money-laundering, we see a good chance that it might come to that. Brexit, incidentally, should facilitate such a move: the UK has been one of the EU’s five most generous member states when it comes to granting such visas.  

Show Comments Write a Comment

This is the public section of the Eurointelligence Professional Briefing, which focuses on the geopolitical aspects of our news coverage. It appears daily at 2pm CET. The full briefing, which appears at 9am CET, is only available to subscribers. Please click here for a free trial, and here for the Eurointelligence home page.

 

Recent News

  • February 19, 2018
  • SPD divided over grand coalition
  • Wauquiez - the French Trump?
  • Why Brexit will be extremely hard to reverse
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • November 19, 2019
  • Not the time to bet against the Franco-German relationship
  • German employers and union united against the debt brake
  • February 05, 2018
  • How big is Germany's external surplus, really?
  • Macron's first election test
  • Coeure's endorsement of a fiscal union
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 25, 2019
  • We should listen to what Mario Draghi is saying about the future of the euro
  • Kurz focusses on Greens after other parties dropped out
  • Is sustainable investment just a matter of deepening capital markets?
  • January 23, 2018
  • Berlusconi is a pro-European once again
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 30, 2019
  • A pyrrhic victory for Kurz
  • Will there really be UK elections?
  • January 10, 2018
  • Yes, the choice is between Canada and Norway
  • Who is resisting Macron and his government?
  • Greece and Macedonia to solve name dispute
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 11, 2019
  • What are the chances of a deal?
  • January 05, 2018
  • Catalonia's government by Skype
  • The case for EEA membership
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • August 05, 2019
  • No deal first, elections later
  • Free movement of labour? Not for politicians
  • Europe already lost the digital battle
  • December 14, 2017
  • Macron gives up on Euro reform... for now?
  • Refugee quota controversy hides disagreement over ultimate policy goal
  • Can't pay, won't pay
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 09, 2019
  • What the UK polls are telling us - and what not
  • November 30, 2017
  • Please tell us there is another way than fudging the border
  • Could Gentiloni remain prime minister beyond the elections?
  • Stage set for Babis minority government
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • June 11, 2019
  • Politics and the new sense of urgency
  • Ten little monkeys jumping up and down - down mostly
  • November 16, 2017
  • Germany's climate duplicity
  • Juppé open to join forces with Macron for EP elections
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 13, 2019
  • Brexit Party has already changed UK politics
  • Orbán visits Trump, after a very long wait
  • Le Pen's appeal to the PiS likely to fall on deaf ears
  • November 01, 2017
  • Brussels receives Catalan president as a circus
  • Canada Dry
  • Me too
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 11, 2019
  • Thoughts on how the European elections in the UK could affect UK and European politics
  • Far right to enter Estonia's government
  • October 17, 2017
  • Catalan separatism has its martyrs
  • European Parliament agrees to restrict posted workers
  • Foreign policy will be key in Austrian coalition talks
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 13, 2019
  • Not really all that meaningful
  • Will the EPP merely put Orban on probation?
  • Why AKKs riposte to Macron is deeply disturbing
  • October 02, 2017
  • Catalonia recalls EU and eurozone instability
  • French trade unions increase pressure over labour reforms
  • Watch out for a political accident in the UK
  • Municipal elections boost Portugal's Socialists
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 07, 2020
  • Europe on brink of serious conflict with China
  • Erdogan's Libya strategy gains support at home
  • February 11, 2019
  • SPD dumps Hartz IV
  • Macron's revival
  • September 18, 2017
  • Why Germany cannot lead Europe, let alone the free world
  • Will Macron help to build up Mélenchon?
  • Boris' Coup
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • May 18, 2020
  • Why this won't be a symmetric shock
  • Towards a new cold war
  • January 07, 2019
  • What to look out for in the Brexit debates
  • Macron's last-resort tool for the gilets jaunes
  • August 31, 2017
  • Where are the Républicains?
  • Poland unmoved by EU rule-of-law sanctions
  • May will stay through Brexit, and then fight the 2022 elections
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 03, 2020
  • After medical concerns, economic concerns take centre stage in Greece
  • New momentum to exclude Fidesz from the EPP
  • The Swedish experiment
  • December 12, 2018
  • 48 letters
  • A sense of deja-vu
  • August 21, 2017
  • Soft, getting softer
  • Tsipras' chances of a boost
  • On the fallacy of a middle-ground option for the eurozone
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • February 02, 2020
  • Is Sinn Fein the Irish anti-establishment vote?
  • Don’t assume that nobody will follow the Brits
  • October 29, 2018
  • Why the EEA is no longer a Brexit option
  • Behold the rising superpower: post-catholic Ireland’s European miracle
  • July 27, 2017
  • Löfven's move
  • The nearing end of petrol and diesel engines
  • Why a second referendum in the UK won’t happen, and why it would be wrong
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • December 12, 2019
  • Greta is right - the EU’s fight against climate change is most likely a PR exercise
  • September 25, 2018
  • Be careful what you wish for - second referendum edition
  • July 10, 2017
  • EU in self-destruction mode
  • The EU's fault lines
  • Fake News and Fake views
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • October 17, 2019
  • A dangerous game for the EU
  • After Brexit, get ready for a German EU budget rebate
  • August 20, 2018
  • ... and a subtle shift in EU policies towards both Russia and Turkey
  • Nothing to celebrate about the end of the bailout programme
  • Support for Brexit holding up
  • June 20, 2017
  • How to soften Brexit?
  • The deep roots of Brexit: Thatcher and the Germans
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • August 27, 2019
  • Remain’s narrowing pathway
  • Macron's diplomatic masterstroke
  • July 09, 2018
  • German panic about Target2
  • AfD level with SPD
  • How the EU could fail
  • May 31, 2017
  • Getting real in the debate on the euro's future
  • Russia's growing influence in Italy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 06, 2020
  • Did Covid-19 escape from a Wuhan lab?
  • What to make of Angela Merkel's U-turn
  • June 18, 2019
  • Retaliation threats over drilling
  • May 28, 2018
  • A no-confidence motion that could backfire
  • The political repercussions of a historic referendum in Ireland
  • Why the lack of an international role for the euro matters
  • May 10, 2017
  • PSOE primary campaign in full swing
  • Czech government crisis escalates
  • Backroom dealing on electoral reform in Italy
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • April 06, 2020
  • The feedback loop of Covid-19 and inequalities - part 10 of our series
  • How confinement affects mental health
  • April 09, 2019
  • What can go wrong now?
  • April 13, 2018
  • German support for eurozone reform next to zero...
  • ... and no support for France on Syria either
  • A French sermon
  • Why the euro endures
  • April 19, 2017
  • Shadows of money
  • Breppe Grillo vs Eurointelligence
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • January 06, 2020
  • A decade that started with a bang
  • What to expect of Spain's next government
  • Divide et impera: Macron's pension reform strategy
  • January 29, 2019
  • What comes after plan B fails? Plan C, of course. C for cliff-edge
  • Gilets jaunes, how to structure a movement in free flow?
  • European Court of Auditors criticises Juncker’s investment fund
  • February 26, 2018
  • Angela Merkel's cabinet
  • March 27, 2017
  • Governing formation troubles - Northern Ireland edition
  • Did Trump present Merkel with a bill for Nato?
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • September 23, 2019
  • Corbyn’s last big battle
  • Germany’s CO2 compromise meets all targets - except the climate targets
  • November 13, 2018
  • Peak Salvini?
  • Protest uberisation
  • January 05, 2018
  • Catalonia's government by Skype
  • The case for EEA membership
  • February 28, 2017
  • Is Hamon losing the right wing of his party?
  • Something we just don’t understand
  • Solve the problem
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 11, 2020
  • While Italy is in lockdown, Germany allows football matches
  • Ireland grand coalition
  • May 31, 2019
  • Salvini’s frightening strength
  • The significance of Corbyn’s latest flipflop on the referendum
  • August 20, 2018
  • ... and a subtle shift in EU policies towards both Russia and Turkey
  • Nothing to celebrate about the end of the bailout programme
  • Support for Brexit holding up
  • November 09, 2017
  • From street protests to road closures
  • What Russia wants
  • January 31, 2017
  • Project fear against Italexit
  • On how not to frustrate Brexit
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 06, 2020
  • Did Covid-19 escape from a Wuhan lab?
  • What to make of Angela Merkel's U-turn
  • October 21, 2019
  • Philippe to brace for more union protests
  • Greens are the electorates' new favourite
  • February 07, 2019
  • Forget Tusk - the real action is elsewhere
  • On David Malpass and the Trump legacy
  • May 28, 2018
  • A no-confidence motion that could backfire
  • The political repercussions of a historic referendum in Ireland
  • Why the lack of an international role for the euro matters
  • September 15, 2017
  • Juncker dragged into the Catalan fray
  • What to say in Florence
  • How to fill the gap left by the British MEPs
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 14, 2020
  • Why the far-right might win in the end
  • December 03, 2019
  • What to look out for in the last week of the compaign
  • Trump threatens tariffs on French luxury exports
  • April 26, 2019
  • How Brexit has given rise to different perceptions of reality
  • The EP, not Madrid, will boost Spanish clout
  • How realistic is a Gaullist Europe?
  • September 17, 2018
  • About the new partnership between Russia and China
  • EU ponders Irish backstop protocol to help May
  • February 07, 2018
  • A short note on bitcoin
  • July 04, 2017
  • On the CDU’s programme
  • Macron defines his presidential style
  • Why do we criticise modern macro?
  • November 28, 2016
  • And now what Monsieur Fillion?
  • The inescapable logic of an interim agreement
  • On Germany's foreign policy post-Trump
  • How to lose against the populists
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • March 31, 2020
  • Orbán's power grab
  • Why we would like to share the optimism on eurobonds, but can’t.
  • September 30, 2019
  • A pyrrhic victory for Kurz
  • Will there really be UK elections?
  • April 01, 2019
  • Meaningful IV
  • Caputová elected: a turning point for central Europe?
  • October 02, 2018
  • Whatever it takes - diesel version
  • Is Macron's European discourse too simplistic?
  • April 06, 2018
  • Schleswig Holstein collapses Spain's strategy against Catalan separatism
  • On the implausibility of conspiracy theories in the Skripal case
  • October 09, 2017
  • UK is starting to prepare for a no-deal Brexit
  • Why Germany will resist meaningful eurozone reform
  • April 12, 2017
  • Macro in a state of denial
  • Where Schulz is vulnerable
  • Schäuble’s three party tricks
  • October 17, 2016
  • Ceta is dead for now
  • L’après-Hollande, c'est Hollande
  • SPD against Russia sanctions
  • Nissan to join customs union and other fanciful tales
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 06, 2020
  • Did Covid-19 escape from a Wuhan lab?
  • What to make of Angela Merkel's U-turn
  • February 24, 2020
  • Coronavirus comes to Europe
  • Municipal elections - a precursor for Le Pen?
  • Germany and France get involved over Idlib
  • October 17, 2019
  • A dangerous game for the EU
  • After Brexit, get ready for a German EU budget rebate
  • June 10, 2019
  • How to create Brexit facts
  • The new Alde is already in trouble
  • January 31, 2019
  • EU will play hardball until February 14, and stick to backstop beyond
  • French left and right moves ahead of EP elections
  • Tighten the belts as the economy prepares for landing
  • September 25, 2018
  • Be careful what you wish for - second referendum edition
  • May 21, 2018
  • Another snap election in the UK? Tories are preparing
  • Merkel and Putin - the beginning of a beautiful friendship?
  • January 15, 2018
  • Is the section on Europe for real?
  • Can Drahos upset Zeman?
  • September 11, 2017
  • Turkey issues travel warning for visitors to Germany
  • How nasty is the AfD?
  • May 08, 2017
  • A message of hope
  • Barnier's not so easily agreed Brexit principles
  • The rebirth of the paranoid conspiracy theory
  • January 05, 2017
  • French Socialist primaries - old wine in new bottles
  • Le Pen's hard ecu
  • Will Tusk get a second mandate?
  • Themes of 2017
  • August 23, 2016
  • Sarkozy launches candidacy in a book
  • Rajoy plans to try again in October
  • Turkey recalls ambassador from Austria
  • April 25, 2016
  • The death of the Grand Coalition
  • Insurrection against TTIP
  • Juppé to benefit from Macron hype
  • On optimal currency areas
  • Why the Artic region could be the next geopolitical troublespot
  • From a currency to a people
  • July 20, 2020
  • What will happen on January 1
  • June 15, 2020
  • US and Germany step up fight over NordStream 2
  • Macron's agenda for the next two years
  • May 10, 2020
  • On court rulings and folk economics
  • EU regions - some far better on Covid-19 but not on downturn
  • April 07, 2020
  • Austria and Denmark - first to exit after Easter
  • All change in the UK
  • Eastern Europe’s unnoticed economic shock
  • March 06, 2020
  • On the greater sense of urgency in the UK
  • February 05, 2020
  • Russia and Turkey on collision course
  • Politics of rupture - Ireland edition
  • What drives Italian parties to support or reject early elections
  • January 06, 2020
  • A decade that started with a bang
  • What to expect of Spain's next government
  • Divide et impera: Macron's pension reform strategy
  • December 09, 2019
  • The next three days
  • November 11, 2019
  • Grand coalition agrees to continue grand coalition
  • Can Greens and conservatives agree on priorities?
  • Germany - self-content and without energy
  • October 16, 2019
  • After Goulard, von der Leyen needs to show leadership
  • Franco-German relations are so backward-looking
  • September 20, 2019
  • Violence in Northern Ireland - not so far-fetched after all
  • German coalition fails to agree climate deal, but negotiations continue
  • August 27, 2019
  • Remain’s narrowing pathway
  • Macron's diplomatic masterstroke
  • July 19, 2019
  • Instex shows the EU is caught between the US and Russia
  • Johnson’s two Brexit options
  • June 26, 2019
  • How would the EU react to Do-or-Die?
  • Merkel Procrastinates? Surely not.
  • June 05, 2019
  • Let’s talk about Boris
  • Will Kinal be the kingmaker in Greek elections?
  • May 15, 2019
  • Why an anti-Macron vote may mobilise in this EP election
  • May's last throw of the dice - a meaningful vote on June 4 or 5
  • April 26, 2019
  • How Brexit has given rise to different perceptions of reality
  • The EP, not Madrid, will boost Spanish clout
  • How realistic is a Gaullist Europe?
  • April 08, 2019
  • Welcome to the new Brexit grand coalition
  • Waiting for Macron's next move
  • March 20, 2019
  • EU is hardening position on long delay
  • Trump's man in Berlin is wrong on form, but right on substance
  • March 04, 2019
  • Macron's two-month sprint
  • May's numbers are not there yet
  • Greening QE
  • On the "hope" of a rate raise
  • February 15, 2019
  • Syriza suffers defeat in constitutional reform
  • A cautionary tale about experts
  • January 31, 2019
  • EU will play hardball until February 14, and stick to backstop beyond
  • French left and right moves ahead of EP elections
  • Tighten the belts as the economy prepares for landing
  • January 17, 2019
  • How Irish insistence on backstop backfired
  • Will Germany blink? Probably not
  • How Tsipras' confidence vote and Prespes vote are linked
  • January 04, 2019
  • Will the AfD become the Dexit party?
  • Romania's corruption problem in the spotlight of its EU presidency
  • December 17, 2018
  • A second referendum is no closer today than last Friday
  • Philippe expects 3.2% deficit next year
  • December 06, 2018
  • There can be no deal as long as delusions of easy alternatives persist
  • What do the gilets jaunes mean for green fiscal policy?
  • November 26, 2018
  • Two German plus two Dutch makes four spitzenkandidaten
  • Yellow vest protests - radicalisation and new political alliances
  • November 15, 2018
  • Ratification is more probable than it appears
  • Romania's problematic presidency
  • November 08, 2018
  • Macron under heavy fire
  • Don’t underestimate AKK
  • November 01, 2018
  • Is candidate Merz a keen pro-European?
  • Around the corner - Brexit edition
  • October 26, 2018
  • Towards Fine Gael II minority government
  • EP votes for Saudi arms embargo, but who cares?
  • It's not easy being green - French edition
  • October 22, 2018
  • A week of intense political tension in the UK
  • Poland's local elections reveal deeply-split country
  • October 18, 2018
  • Disorder, disorder....
  • Tsipras sacrifices Kotzias - but what's the end game?
  • October 15, 2018
  • Black Brexit smoke
  • Bettel can relax and stay in office
  • Solving the crime vs solving the problem
  • October 12, 2018
  • A deal so close, and yet so far
  • AfD leaves Germans speachless and helpless