It is on one level a classic story of political intrigue, but deep down it is also a story of a break in the Franco-German relationship. Ursula von der Leyen, the German president of the European  Commission, got rid Thierry Breton, the French industry commissioner. He quit on Monday. In his resignation letter, he wrote that von der Leyen had approached Emmanuel Macron to ask him to nominate another candidate. She threatened to demote Breton otherwise. After Breton’s resignation, Macron followed von der Leyen’s order and nominated Stéphane Séjourné, the outgoing French foreign minister.

For Marine Le Pen, and her right-wing National Rally, the story of French humiliation at the hand of a German Kommissar is a gift. It appears to confirm everything she ever said about the EU – the French version of the story of an EU run as a German racket. Jean Quatremer, the longest-serving of the Brussels correspondents, tweets that he has never seen anything like this in his more than forty years in Brussels.

Nor have I. There have been many Franco-German disagreements before. But never such disrespect. I have seen an entire generation of foreign correspondents in Brussels not witnessing any tangible evidence of Franco-German co-operation, only to be surprised when it suddenly kicked in again – as it did in 2020 when Emmanual Macron and Angela Merkel jointly proposed a recovery fund to help member states get through the pandemic. The relationship was mostly quiet but always lurked in the background. The leaders treated each other with respect even when they disagreed.

I recall a conversation with Wolfgang Schäuble, the late German finance minister under Merkel, criticising the fiscal policies of southern European countries, but explicitly exempting France. The reason was entirely political. Anything else would have been considered poor diplomatic style.

The era of bilateral restraint is gone. The current finance minister, Christian Lindner, recently warned the European Central Bank not to bail out France should it ever come to a financial crisis. For those of us who follow financial and monetary affairs, this feels like he was actively trying to trigger a run on French bonds.

Von der Leyen’s manoeuvre is of a more classical kind - a power battle to see off an opponent. There is a backstory to their rivalry. Breton played an instrumental role in von der Leyen’s failure to get one of her closest allies appointed to become the EU’s envoy for small and medium-sized companies. Breton made a cynical comment on X when von der Leyen only received lukewarm support from the CDU for her nomination. Maybe the last straw was his tweet in August when he suggested that Elon Musk’s interview with Donald Trump could constitute a violation of the EU’s Digital Markets Act. Von der Leyen got the Commission to issue a formal retraction of that story.

I myself feel about von der Leyen and Breton the way Henry Kissinger felt about Iran and Iraq. Why can’t they both lose? I find the two equidistantly wrong. Together, the two have been responsible for the most misguided policies in the EU’s 66-year history. Under their leadership the EU passed regulations that keep the EU trapped in the digital stone age, especially the digital markets act and the regulation on artificial intelligence. Together with the data protection regulation, an act of regulatory zealotry passed by the previous Commission, the EU’s fight against all-things digital is starting to have macroeconomic effects. As Europe’s old industries can no longer compete against China, there are no new sectors for the EU to diversify into, because the Commission has erected large regulatory barriers.

More potential conflicts lie ahead for France and Germany. If Friedrich Merz becomes German chancellor, as seems increasingly probable, his main European policy priority will be to undo the 2035 deadline for the sale of fuel-driven cars, to reverse the tariffs on Chinese cars, and to push back looming EU emissions reduction targets. The car industry is facing a potential €15 billion in fines as they are on course to violate the 2025 emission targets. The Germans will do anything to keep their ailing car industry afloat. Unity of the EU is not their priority. Nor is the Franco-German relationship.

I suspect von der Leyen will support Merz. France will resist this, along with Italy. This is the line of future conflict. Mario Draghi, the former Italian prime minister, spoke truth to power last week when he called on the EU to overhaul its regulation and open to 21st century technologies. The EU’s recent laws are not only intrusive and burdensome, but also inconsistent, and simply badly drafted.

I see the EU entering an age of secular decline, being left behind by the US and China, the two super-powers of the 21st century. It may be too much to ask of the EU to join the competition. But under von der Leyen’s leadership the EU has been regressing. The Draghi’s report is more polite in tone than I am here, but no less damning in its verdict.

Von der Leyen defines the EU’s political priority as supporting Ukraine, which strikes me as misguided. The EU is not a military power and cannot deliver weapons. Nor does the EU have the power to raise taxes or issue debt. If it does not fix the economy, it will not be a place worth joining.

For those Europeans who feel glad to see Breton gone, be careful what you wish for. This is ultimately a battle between two losers – one of which has been knocked out, and the other one limps for another five years without a strategy. There are no winners.