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Beware of allowing hindsight bias to get in the way of your political judgement

31 October 2021

About forecasting

Inflation models are worse then useless. They make central banks complancent.

24 October 2021

The porcupine flips

Olaf Scholz' traffic light coalition will focus on domestic investment, not EU reform.

17 October 2021

Germany's message to Europe

The German constitutional court pronouncements were nowhere near as extreme as what happened in Poland last week. But years of anti-European legal rhetoric in Germany has created fertile ground for secessionist juridical decisions elsewhere.

10 October 2021

Ultra Vires

The big issue for the next generation of German leaders is not macroeconomics or European integration, but technological decline.

03 October 2021

The next generation

Inflation denial comes in stages. Central banks are well past the first.

26 September 2021

Five Stages of inflation denial

The Europeans have misread Biden and misjudged Johnson. A bad combination

19 September 2021

Snookered by Anglo-Saxons

Forced vaccination could turn a small movement of anti-vaxxers into a larger coalition.

12 September 2021

Madness of compulsory vaccination

The German finance minister has been at the centre of the worst economic policy decisions in Germany over the last 20 years.

03 September 2021

The two Olafs

At a time of shock and terror, it is worth reflecting on two unknown works by Carl von Clausewitz, on the art of the small war.

27 August 2021

The wars we lose

The political cost of the US/German deal on Nord Stream 2 will vastly exceed its commercial benefits.

25 July 2021

Anschluss

Climate change is a challenge that requires single-minded determination and political leadership, not diffuse agendas and bullet points.

16 July 2021

What it will take

A central bank's job is to stabilise prices. If it tries to save the planet as well, it will fail in both tasks.

11 July 2021

Operator Overload

The average is a poor statistic to explain climate change. And a disaster to communicate it.

03 July 2021

Beware of averages

Angela Merkel is the most over-rated politician of our time.

26 June 2021

Overrated - now fading

Why co-opting industry into the Green agenda is a mistake.

18 June 2021

What Greens should focus on

The Glorious Green Revolution in Germany is most likely postponed.

12 June 2021

Forever blowing bubbles

The answer is No. But it is not the entire answer.

05 June 2021

Should we worry about inflation?

Economic sanctions against Belarus will work only if extended to Russia. Otherwise, they will have the opposite effect.

29 May 2021

Unintended consequence of sanctions

It is still there. But fading.

21 May 2021

What happened to the Fourth Estate?