One of the most frustrating experiences in political life in Europe must be the effort to try to change the way the EU works. People have tried this from the left and the right, from pro- and anti-European positions. I spent a fair share of my professional life campaigning for a closer economic union for the eurozone, but finally gave up. If even a sovereign debt crisis cannot create enough momentum, what else can?

The lastest group of politicians who want to change the EU from within is the far-right. Its unofficial leader right now is Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister. Her accomplice is Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian leader. Another one is Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia. Fico's position strengthened last weekend, when Peter Pellegrini, a fellow populist, was elected president of Slovakia. The right is clearly on the march in Europe, but it is far less united than one might think. Meloni supports Ukraine in its war against Russia, whereas Orbán and Fico do not. What unites the right is opposition to immigration, but they are divided on many issues. Meloni and Orbán have in common that they are both social conservatives. This is much less true of Marine Le Pen. France just became the first country in the world to include abortion rights into its constitution. Le Pen supported this. Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany is openly gay. She lives in Switzerland with a partner, who stems from Sri Lanka, and their two children. Orbán's government, meanwhile, passed a constitutional amendment in 2020 that declares that "the mother is a woman, the father is a man". I am not surprised that the far-right parties disagree with each other. Their ideologies are rooted in nationalism. 

Attempts to change Europe from within have a long track record of failure. The EU resisted Charles de Gaulle in 1965 and 1966, when he boycotted EU meetings with an empty-chair policy. He was fighting to maintain his veto. The episode ended with the face-saving Luxembourg compromise in which the EU ceded almost nothing to de Gaulle. In the 1980s, the EU resisted Margaret Thatcher, first over her demands to get her money back, and later over European integration. She got most of her money back in the form of the British rebate, but failed in the bigger battle to stop the next stages of European integration. Later in the 1990s, the EU resisted pressure from German politicians who wanted to establish a deeply integrated core Europe that would have excluded large parts of the south. Tony Blair tried to win over European hearts and minds when he became UK prime minister in 1997. But his main European legacy was the division of the EU over Iraq. The EU later resisted David Cameron's attempt to negotiate a new deal - with the known results. 

This short history should serve as a reminder that people more formidable than Meloni and Orbán have tried to change the EU and failed. Whenever the attempt to change Brussels from within stems from domestic politics or from ideology, it ended up failing. Advocacy for an economic union failed because German conservatives would not support it.

Success in European politics requires a focus on issues of collective action. This is why none of the previous attempts to change Europe have worked. It was always about red lines, what we pay and what we get, and in the case of de Gaulle of trying to foist his own political beliefs onto others. The far-right falls into the same category. Their entire existence is premised on the denial of need for collective action at European level.  

The right is nevertheless a formidable political force. Projections show that it could win many seats in the June European elections. It will become harder, maybe impossible, for the centre to form an effective alliance. The far-right won't end up running Europe. But no one else will either. 

The gridlock already started. EU ministers recently failed to agree on the Nature Restoration Law, the flagship project of the Commission's green agenda, because of opposition from Meloni. They had to water down a law to make European companies responsible for slave labour in their supply chains. 

Gridlock plays into the hands of the far-right. But Meloni and Orbán want more. They seek to roll back existing EU laws and regulations. I am confident that this will not happen. If there is one thing harder than European integration, it is European disintegration. You need big majorities for both.

But this ultimate failure of the right should not be a cause for joy for the centrists either. The EU's ability to resist the likes of Meloni and Orbán is part of its DNA, but it also deprives it from the life force of politics - and contributes to the decline in popular support. European elections rarely have visible consequences except that politicians get new jobs. European election campaigns are usually focused on national issues, rather than on what the European Commission or the European Parliament should do. Winners do not win, and losers do not lose because EU legislation requires a majority amongst ministers representing 55 percent of EU member states and 65 percent of the population. EU voting processes are unique in that it is possible for everybody to lose. 

My fear for the EU is not that Meloni and Orbán will take over, or that it will collapse or disappear, or even that several members will follow the UK and leave. I think a far more likely scenario is for the EU to become irrelevant, unable to widen and deepen, to move forward or backward.