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23 January 2022

When did we lose the fight?

The battle for European integration has failed. It is time to recognise defeat, and to think through the consequences.

16 January 2022

When Russia invades...

... Europe will appease

09 January 2022

Let's talk Ponzi

Modern central banking has more characteristics of a Ponzi scheme than bitcoin or ether.

19 December 2021

What Johnson needs to do - but won't

Lord Frost's resignation goes to the heart of what's wrong with the Johnson administration. And it has nothing to do parties.

12 December 2021

Unicorns everywhere

The best economic news from Europe right now is the phenomenal growth in high-tech start-ups. But it is mostly a UK story.

05 December 2021

View from the 22nd century

Journalists should stick to writing first drafts of history. The second draft is for future historians.

27 November 2021

Berlin Spring

Olaf Scholz managed to put together an improbably ambitious coalition, but there is reason to be sceptical.

21 November 2021

Germany's federal virus

The current Covid-19 wave has hit Germany particularly hard, and has exposed weaknesses in how the country is governed.

14 November 2021

The great disruptor

Crypto and artificial intelligence are biggest political disruptors of our time.

07 November 2021

A toxic relationship

Why it is not a bad thing for EU and UK to reset their relationship, and start with a clean slate.

31 October 2021

About forecasting

Beware of allowing hindsight bias to get in the way of your political judgement

24 October 2021

The porcupine flips

Inflation models are worse then useless. They make central banks complancent.

17 October 2021

Germany's message to Europe

Olaf Scholz' traffic light coalition will focus on domestic investment, not EU reform.

10 October 2021

Ultra Vires

The German constitutional court pronouncements were nowhere near as extreme as what happened in Poland last week. But years of anti-European legal rhetoric in Germany has created fertile ground for secessionist juridical decisions elsewhere.

03 October 2021

The next generation

The big issue for the next generation of German leaders is not macroeconomics or European integration, but technological decline.

26 September 2021

Five Stages of inflation denial

Inflation denial comes in stages. Central banks are well past the first.

19 September 2021

Snookered by Anglo-Saxons

The Europeans have misread Biden and misjudged Johnson. A bad combination

12 September 2021

Madness of compulsory vaccination

Forced vaccination could turn a small movement of anti-vaxxers into a larger coalition.

03 September 2021

The two Olafs

The German finance minister has been at the centre of the worst economic policy decisions in Germany over the last 20 years.

27 August 2021

The wars we lose

At a time of shock and terror, it is worth reflecting on two unknown works by Carl von Clausewitz, on the art of the small war.

25 July 2021


The political cost of the US/German deal on Nord Stream 2 will vastly exceed its commercial benefits.

16 July 2021

What it will take

Climate change is a challenge that requires single-minded determination and political leadership, not diffuse agendas and bullet points.

11 July 2021

Operator Overload

A central bank's job is to stabilise prices. If it tries to save the planet as well, it will fail in both tasks.

03 July 2021

Beware of averages

The average is a poor statistic to explain climate change. And a disaster to communicate it.

26 June 2021

Overrated - now fading

Angela Merkel is the most over-rated politician of our time.