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It is not possible to assess the probability of a nuclear war, based on the information we have now.

25 September 2022

What are the odds?

The bigger danger is not what Giorgia Meloni will do to the EU, but what the EU will do to her.

18 September 2022

What to worry about and what not

One of the future power configurations in German politics, the Jamaica Coalition, is no longer feasible.

11 September 2022

Scholz did something clever

Europe maybe at the beginning of an unusually severe recession, one that won't auto-reverse

04 September 2022

The trend is a curve, not a line

In truth, the euro area's sovereign debt crisis never ended. We just chose to look the other way.

16 July 2022

Return of the euro crisis

Boris Johnson's departure is ultimately about Brexit, but this will not become clear for a while.

10 July 2022

When Boris goes...

Germany is fretting about a cold winter as Vladimir Putin may be about to unleash his strongest weapon yet.

26 June 2022

Goodbye Gazprom

The ECB is intent to resist market pressure to bail out governments. But it may struggle.

19 June 2022

How to resist fiscal dominance

Part of the cryptoverse is a bubble. But not all of it.

12 June 2022

When it’s not Ponzi

This column makes the unfashionable case for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine

29 May 2022

Let diplomacy do its job

The world's economic inter-dependencies are manifold and mutual. Sanctions have large network effects.

22 May 2022

The West and the rest

UK media and think tanks still dominate the debate about future European integration. That will not always be so.

15 May 2022

When Brits explain the EU to us

The EU's oil sanctions provide an incentive for Vladimir Putin to cut off gas supplies. Are we ready for this?

08 May 2022

What if Putin cuts the gas?

Germany's corporatist model was reliant for its survival on cosy relations with Russia. Now what?

01 May 2022

Networks of resistance

The German chancellor's communication on arms deliveries is puzzling. He is either hiding information or lying.

24 April 2022

Germany's duplicitous chancellor

It is time to consider the reality that nobody is winning this war.

08 April 2022

It's complicated

Germany and Italy are the financial sponsors of Russian war crimes. This gas deliveries have to end now.

02 April 2022

After Bucha

Joe Biden's comments about regime change are a reminder that we can't leave the strategic thinking to the Americans.

27 March 2022

What is our war aim?

Despite military setbacks, Vladimir Putin is still on course to achieve his strategic targets.

20 March 2022

The cheerleading has to stop

On the impossibility of isolating a large country in the 21st century.

13 March 2022

A BRIC, impenetrable to sanctions