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... Europe will appease

16 January 2022

When Russia invades...

Modern central banking has more characteristics of a Ponzi scheme than bitcoin or ether.

09 January 2022

Let's talk Ponzi

Lord Frost's resignation goes to the heart of what's wrong with the Johnson administration. And it has nothing to do parties.

19 December 2021

What Johnson needs to do - but won't

The best economic news from Europe right now is the phenomenal growth in high-tech start-ups. But it is mostly a UK story.

12 December 2021

Unicorns everywhere

Journalists should stick to writing first drafts of history. The second draft is for future historians.

05 December 2021

View from the 22nd century

Olaf Scholz managed to put together an improbably ambitious coalition, but there is reason to be sceptical.

27 November 2021

Berlin Spring

The current Covid-19 wave has hit Germany particularly hard, and has exposed weaknesses in how the country is governed.

21 November 2021

Germany's federal virus

Crypto and artificial intelligence are biggest political disruptors of our time.

14 November 2021

The great disruptor

Why it is not a bad thing for EU and UK to reset their relationship, and start with a clean slate.

07 November 2021

A toxic relationship

Beware of allowing hindsight bias to get in the way of your political judgement

31 October 2021

About forecasting

Inflation models are worse then useless. They make central banks complancent.

24 October 2021

The porcupine flips

Olaf Scholz' traffic light coalition will focus on domestic investment, not EU reform.

17 October 2021

Germany's message to Europe

The German constitutional court pronouncements were nowhere near as extreme as what happened in Poland last week. But years of anti-European legal rhetoric in Germany has created fertile ground for secessionist juridical decisions elsewhere.

10 October 2021

Ultra Vires

The big issue for the next generation of German leaders is not macroeconomics or European integration, but technological decline.

03 October 2021

The next generation

Inflation denial comes in stages. Central banks are well past the first.

26 September 2021

Five Stages of inflation denial

The Europeans have misread Biden and misjudged Johnson. A bad combination

19 September 2021

Snookered by Anglo-Saxons

Forced vaccination could turn a small movement of anti-vaxxers into a larger coalition.

12 September 2021

Madness of compulsory vaccination

The German finance minister has been at the centre of the worst economic policy decisions in Germany over the last 20 years.

03 September 2021

The two Olafs

At a time of shock and terror, it is worth reflecting on two unknown works by Carl von Clausewitz, on the art of the small war.

27 August 2021

The wars we lose

The political cost of the US/German deal on Nord Stream 2 will vastly exceed its commercial benefits.

25 July 2021